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Country Economic Forecasts > Spain

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 12 pages

Quarterly GDP growth in Q3 was confirmed at 0.7%, slightly below the 0.8% expansion in Q2. The detailed breakdown corroborates our prediction that that domestic demand continued to be the main driving force. Net exports, on the other hand only contributed marginally to growth.

Short-term growth continues to be supported by familiar tailwinds, including ultra-loose ECB monetary policy and low oil prices. We therefore are maintaining our above-consensus 3.3% forecast for this year. Furthermore, preliminary indicators suggest that economic growth will remain strong in Q4. As a result of the carry-over effect into 2017, we have lifted our GDP forecast for next year slightly to 2.4% (from 2.3% last month).

There has been some positive news on the fiscal front this month. Faced with the realisation that the country was going to miss its budget targets next year, the government recently announced higher taxes for corporates and on alcohol and tobacco. The measures, which aim at raising an additional EUR5bn in revenues, should allow Spain to meet its fiscal goals in 2017.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Spain
Spainand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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