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Country Economic Forecasts > Spain

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

Although the economy slowed down a notch in Q3, economic momentum in Spain remains strong. GDP expanded a preliminary 0.7% on the quarter in Q3, slightly below the 0.8% growth in Q2. A detailed GDP breakdown will not be available until the end of the month, but domestic demand is likely to have been the main driving force.

In the short term, growth continues to be stimulated by the impact of ultra-loose ECB monetary policy and low oil prices on consumer demand, so we the economy expanding by a strong 3.3% this year. However, we expect the pace to ease to 2.3% in 2017 as the current tailwinds start to fade and the government is forced to apply further cuts to meet tighter fiscal targets.

On a positive note, following ten months of political paralysis, Spain finally has a new government, with Mariano Rajoy re-elected prime minister following an abstention by the Socialist Party. Rajoy's most pressing issue will be to find enough support to pass next year's budget, a task that will be hard to achieve given the current balance of forces in the parliament.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Spain
Spainand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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