Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 100 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

The Egyptian petrochemicals industry is beginning to make tentative steps towards expansion in
spite of lingering uncertainty under the interim government. While the risks are high, the local market's
potential and the plentiful domestic supply of ethane still makes it an attractive place to invest in the long
term.

A lack of fresh foreign investment could affect the start-up of new companies, and consequently the
country's manufacturing sector and polyolefins demand. Meanwhile, the central bank's poor standing will
also present difficulties for converters when they attempt to open letters of credit recognised by banks
abroad, which are necessary to purchase PE and PP for import. Such difficulties could have the effect of
supporting domestic production.

Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts:

- An Indo-Egyptian joint venture (JV), The Egyptian-Indian Polyester Company (EIPET) (70%
Dhunseri Petrochem & Tea, 23% EChem, 7% Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries
(ENPPI)), commissioned a polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle resin plant in Egypt in January 2014.
The new two-line PET plant in the deep sea port on the Red Sea at Ain Sokhna has combined capacity for
420,000tpa. The plant is the first of its kind in North Africa and one of the largest such units in the
Middle East. The facility will meet Egypt's domestic demand, which is covered by imports, and will
facilitate exports of PET.

Table Of Contents

Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ...... 8
Political ................... 10
Economic ................. 11
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast ..... 14
Production .............. 14
Consumption ........... 15
Table: Egypt's Petrochemicals Capacity, 2012-2018 ('000tpa unless otherwise stated) . . 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts ........... 18
Economic Analysis ..... 18
Table: Egypt - Gdp By Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings ...... 24
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings ............... 24
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314 . . . . 26
Egypt Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings .............. 26
Market Overview ...... 28
Industry Trends And Developments ................. 30
Upstream ................ 30
Olefins And Polyolefins .................. 31
Company Profile ....... 35
Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (EChem) 35
Sidpec 37
Regional Overview ... 39
Middle East And Africa Overview ...... 39
Looking To Asia ....... 40
Diversification The Long-Term Focus .................... 42
African Growth Focused In The North ................... 42
Global Industry Overview .............. 46
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013 . . . . . . 49
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive ................. 50
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand ..... 51
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf .... 52
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore .................... 52
Gasoline .................. 54
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Weak Q114 For Gasoline ............... 55
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains .... 56
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market 59
Risks To Outlook ...... 62
Diesel . 62
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 63
New York's One-Off Heat Up ........... 63
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected ....... 66
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward .... 70
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks ........... 72
Risks To Outlook ...... 76
Jet Fuel ................... 77
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl . 77
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall ...... 77
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth . . . . 79
Risks To Outlook ...... 82
Bunker fuel ............... 83
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) . . . . . . . . . . . 83
The Storm Clears For Shipping ........ 84
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices ............... 86
Long-Term Threats Linger .............. 87
Pressing Rotterdam and New York Harder ................ 89
Risks To Outlook ...... 89
Demographic Forecast ................. 91
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 92
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . 93
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . 94
Glossary .................... 95
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . . . . 95
Methodology ............. 96
Industry Forecast Methodology ....... 96
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 98
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators . . . . . . 99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 100

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