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Philippines Mining Report 2015

  • February 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The mid-2014 exit of Glencore Xstrata from the USD5.9bn Tampakan copper-gold project reflects continuing challenges for mining investment in the Philippines, largely due to subdued metal prices. Moreover, resource nationalism will remain a threat as the Philippine government continues to consider raising taxes on the mining sector.

Falling metal prices and fading attraction of frontier mining will continue to dampen investment into the Philippines' mining space over the coming years. As spotlighted by the exit of Glencore Xstrata from the USD5.9bn Tampakan project in South Cotabato, which announced its decision to sell its stake in the mine in a bid to prune its portfolio and focus on the development of brownfield projects, we expect the majority of international miners to focus on brownfield investment rather than costlier and riskier greenfield projects. Indeed, we believe frontier regions will suffer the brunt of cutbacks in investment given the inherent risks and huge capital commitment associated with immature regulatory frameworks and a paucity of sound infrastructure. However, domestic players will continue to expand their footprint and develop deposits deemed economical. Average annual sector growth will come in at 5.3% in 2015-2019, though this will be from a low base. Moreover, the mining sector will continue to make up a minor part of the wide Philippine economy.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Mining Report 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Philippines - Number Of Operating Metallic Mines 7
Despite Mineral Resources, Operational Challenges For Global Miners 8
Resource Nationalism To Remain Concern 8
Indonesian Ban Provides Upside 8
Industry Forecast 11
Copper: Sharp Slowdown From Boom Years 11
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Philippines 2011-2019) 12
Gold: Outlook A Bit Tarnished 13
Table: Philippines - Gold Mining Projects 13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Philippines 2011-2019) 15
Nickel: Indonesian Ban To Provide Significant 2015 Upside 16
Indonesia Provides Upside 17
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Philippines 2011-2019) 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Asia Risk Reward Index 19
Australia Stays On Top While India and Myanmar Gain 19
Shifting Scores Reflect Changing Sector Dynamics 20
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Philippines Risk/Reward Index 22
Rewards 22
Industry Rewards 22
Country Rewards 22
Risks 23
Industry Risks 23
Country Risks 24
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2019) 24
Regulatory Development 25
Tax Regime 25
Regulatory Inconsistencies To Cause Complications 26
Social Stability To Remain A Concern 26
Table: Philippines Political Overview 27
Table: Asia Mining Regulatory Index 28
Commodities Forecast 29
Commodity Strategy 29
Ferrous Metals 29
Non-Ferrous Metals 33
Aluminium: Abating Tightness To Cap Prices 33
Copper: Continued Weakness Ahead 34
Lead: Prices To Firm As Year Progresses 35
Nickel: Prices Will Only Rise Gradually 36
Tin: Waiting On A Deficit 37
Zinc: Modest Price Growth On Tighter Supply But Looser Demand 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Domestic Players Dominate 41
Table: Philippines - Largest Listed Mining Companies 42
Company Profile 43
Nickel Asia 43
Table: Nickel Asia - Key Financial Data 46
Philex Mining Corporation 47
Table: Philex Mining - Key Financial Data 50
Semirara Mining Corporation (SMC) 51
Table: Semimara Mining - Key Financial Data 53
Regional Overview 54
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production 54
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 55
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 56
Indonesian Ban To Continue 58
Global Industry Overview 59
Global Overview 59
2. Stronger US Dollar To Persist 62
3. Iron Ore Market To Consolidate 63
5. Standouts In 2015 67
Methodology 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Sources 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 72

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