Table of Contents
Over the next five years, NATO nations (especially the US) will considerably reduce their investment in Defense and Security Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) while the non-NATO world will move into those military and police UAVs in a relatively big way.This is but one of the crucial conclusions reached by the team that researched and composed MiG’s new forecast.The US DoD is changing its focus from Counter Insurgency to a more traditional conflict against a near-peer. That move will reduce the need for expensive UAVs, but will increase the need for fast, stealthy, survivable UAVs.This new forecast provides a triple-scenario analysis, examining the global evolutionary paths of Defense and Security UAVs over three possible futures – displayed by regions, system types and technologies. This unique research effort also presents multiple business opportunities, logical operating concepts and background data on imaging and radio payload coverage. Together, those features equip developers with a clear understanding of evolving markets, buyers with technical insights and sellers with insights into buyer’s needs.And the situation is forecasted to become even more interesting during the 2017 thorough 2021 period.
This forecast covers the most active, most lucrative Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) markets where governments purchase unmanned aircraft for national defense and homeland security. Today, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations (including the US) fly most of the world’s UAVs, with their immediate focus on combat operations in Afghanistan. Research and development certainly includes sophisticated stealth designs but actual operations are almost exclusively conventional aircraft flying against insurgents. This is small unit warfare flown by unmanned aircraft based on sailplane and rotary wing aerodynamics in skies guaranteed safe through air supremacy. Future operations may be more of the same.
On the other hand, future operations may be flown against integrated air defenses and significant cyber capabilities. It appears the US lost its sophisticated operational stealth UAV to an Iranian cyber-attack; far worse than if it had been shot down. Market Info Group (MiG) develops multiple scenarios to provide forecasts that account for such uncertainty. Recent counter-insurgency operations, and tomorrow’s stealth fight, represent most of the world’s UAV market activity, for now. Homeland security represents most of the remainder, for now.
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