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Trade data this week point to a strong recovery world trade in Q4. This may partly explain the strength of recent survey data and, together with the earlier industrial production figures for November, points to euro area quarterly GDP growth of around 0.5% in Q4. However, much of the increase in exports appears to be the result of the increased stimulus in China. This continues to suggest that faster growth is also accompanied by elevated levels of uncertainty.

Despite inflation surprising to the upside in December, the ECB took a dovish line at this month's policy meeting, opening the door to quantitative easing being extended well in 2018. This leaves the ECB in data-dependent mode, with the future of its asset purchase programme likely to rest on the endogeneity of core inflation and wages to increases in headline inflation. But if wages start to rise, inflation is likely to surprise to the upside.

Table Of Contents

Weekly Economic Briefings > Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing > Eurozone
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefings

  1. Lead Articleand#58; Two to five page briefing headed by a synopsis of events-driven analysis for the week, which highlights most recent data releases, and political and economic developments.

  2. Historical, forecast, and analytical charts and graphs support the lead article. Country specific and/or Eurozone charts include the most relevant indicators and exemplify any changes in the outlook. The historical charts typically offer a 10 to 15 year time series and cover headline and other relevant indicators including GDP, employment, inflation, exchange rate changes, consumer and business confidence, developments in the capital markets, the composition of sovereign debt including amortization schedules and changes in yields, economic outlook by sector, etc. The forecast charts typically look out to four years ahead. In addition, analytical graphics clearly present empirical evidence supporting the text.

  3. Latest Data in Detailand#58; One to two pages of summary analysis and associated graphics that offer a 10 to 15 year snapshot of the week's data releases. .

  4. The Week Aheadand#58; A chart of scheduled data releases including the last release and consensus forecast.

  5. Key Indicatorsand#58; Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for the followingand#58; Industrial production; unemployment; CPI; business and consumer confidence; and trade.

  6. Financial Indicatorsand#58; Eurozone table showing monthly percentage changes for the past year for interest and exchange rates, money supply, share price indices and net foreign direct investment.

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