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A change in government and fiscal reforms provided a huge boost to policy credibility in 2016, and the further improvements will likely come via passing the test of time. Further rebalancing of the fiscal-monetary policy mix will be more gradual, but we think that bond yields will fall by 150-200 basis points to 10% by end-2018, a slower pace of convergence with international norms, but still lucrative for investors.

In particular, we think that, as of now, the bond market is not pricing in enough rate cuts by the central bank (BCB). Market consensus and our estimates suggest that, by having regained control of expectations, the BCB will be able to cut the policy rate to single digits in 2018 while keeping inflation at the target. With short rates expected to fall by another 450bp in the next 24 months (after November's cut), bond yields have room to fall considerably below this year's low of 11%.

Another factor reinforcing our call is the increased predictability of fiscal policy brought by the 20-year spending cap. By ensuring that government expenditure will be flat in real terms in the long term, authorities managed to spread the cost of a 5% of GDP fiscal tightening over several years. As such, the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall steadily from 2020 onwards without the need for tax hikes, hence minimising the cost to growth.


Table Of Contents

Weekly Economic Briefings > Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the product listed. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.


Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefings


  1. Lead Article - Four- or five-page briefing of events-driven analysis for the week, which varies depending upon topical economic/political issues and data releases. The lead article offers both transnational and country specific highlights, with particular emphasis on changes in Oxford Economics' outlook/forecasts.

  2. Charts and graphs support the lead article, and add detail to the analysis. Country specific and/or Emerging Markets charts typically include a number of the followingand#58; GDP; domestic demand and exports; Short-term interest rates; FDI inflows and outflows; FDI inflows as % of GDP; Manufacturing PMI; Policy interest rates; Interest rates and WPI inflation; Consumer prices; FDI and portfolio inflows; Monthly trade balances, etc.

  3. Latest Data in Detail - A chart summarizing recent data releases including relevant comparisons to the previous month for the following countriesand#58; Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey, Taiwan, Poland, Argentina, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Korea, South Africa, and Chile.

  4. An Events Chart summarizing the key rate/outcome of monetary policy meetings held in the past week.

    1. Charts highlighting economic developments and changes in outlook are presented by regionand#58; Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Rest of World

    2. Charts offer time-series data, typically for ten years, on several of the following indicatorsand#58; index of monthly economic activity, industrial output, GDP, trade, real exchange rates, inflation, property prices, employment, interest rates, etc, typically in nominal terms but in some cases are indexed and/or adjusted for inflation. Some of the charts also offer transnational comparisons, for example the trade balances of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, or inflation rates. The measurements, for example an index, percentage, real or nominal levels, % changes, are identified as well as the source of the data. Charts highlighting Financial developments on several of the following indicators are included and presented as time-series data, typically 1997 to 2011and#58; portfolio flows; foreign exchange reserves; foreign direct investment flows; real effective exchange rates; bank lending to developing economies; Equity Markets; Exchange rates vs. US$; Exchange rates vs. Euros; etc.

  5. Industrial Production - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  6. Consumer Prices - table showing monthly percentage % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  7. Exports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

  8. Imports in US$ - table showing monthly % changes on the previous year for the following countriesand#58; China, Brazil, Korea, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, and Poland.

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