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Country Economic Forecasts > Philippines

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

For a second consecutive quarter, GDP growth surprised on the upside, posting 7.1% year-on-year growth in Q3. The expansion was driven by robust household consumption and investment. Consumption grew by 7.3% on the year and contributed almost 5 percentage points (ppt) to GDP growth, while investment increased by 23.5% year-on-year and contributed 5.5 ppt. Given this result, we have raised our 2016 full-year GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.6% previously.

The Philippines will be affected by the repercussions of the forthcoming presidency of Donald Trump. The impact will most likely come through the services trade (Business Process Outsourcing) and remittance channels. Notwithstanding these possible drags, stable macroeconomic fundamentals and robust domestic demand should shield the country from most external risks (such as weakness in world trade or a sharp rise in capital outflows). We have maintained our 2017 GDP growth forecast at 6.1%.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Philippines
Philippinesand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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