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Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have left our core outlook for the Ukrainian agricultural market unchanged in our Q2 2016report update. We maintain a negative outlook for the sector owing to a range of concerns. All agriculturalmarkets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. There will belimited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstable political and economicsituation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports fromUkraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one ofUkraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limitimports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from theexport opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources to scaleup production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production will decline by 17.4% in 2016 to reach a total value of 23.5mn tonnes.

- We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 11.5% to reach 23.0mn tonnes.

- The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 due to macroeconomic unsoundness.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: Ukraine - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Dairy Outlook 16
Table: Ukraine - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Table: Ukraine - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Commodity Price Analysis 26
Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Europe Machinery Outlook 28
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 32
Europe GM Outlook 34
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 40
Downstream Analysis 47
Food 47
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 48
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 49
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2014-2019) 50
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2014-2019) 51
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 52
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 53
Regional Overview 55
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 61
Demographic Forecast 62
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 63
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 63
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68

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