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  4. > Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Azerbaijan's hopes of establishing a world-class petrochemicals facility by 2020 have beendealt a major blow as the country's economic woes have prompted a freeze on the plans for a newintegrated complex, the Oil and Gas Processing and Petrochemical Complex, which was intended to rivalmajor Middle Eastern producers.Azerbaijan's aim of becoming a significant petrochemicals exporter is unlikely to be realised in theforeseeable future. SOCAR is focusing on petrochemicals investment in Turkey, which remains a majorexport destination for the country's oil and is a large industrial economy with access to the EU market.Azerbaijan imports 60,000tpa of finished chemicals products that could be substituted with Azerbaijanimadeproducts.

In order to meet this target and become a net exporter, it is our view that additional ethyleneand propylene plants will need to be constructed.Azerbaijan will need to address major infrastructural constraints if it is to become a significantpetrochemicals producer. Capacity utilisation of existing plants is restricted by lack of investment andmaintenance, as well as the predominance of old and environmentally damaging technology. Projectsoutlined by the economy ministry are formulated based on prospective export markets. However, theindustry is highly underdeveloped and there is a gap between petrochemicals ambitions and availablefeedstock. In the past, output has been undermined by the rising cost of electricity, which state-runchemicals company Azerkimya has been unable to afford, leaving it in need of a government-backedfinancial lifeline. This demonstrates the lack of efficiency in the petrochemicals industry in Azerbaijan andits dependence on state subsidies.

Table Of Contents

Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Table: Azerbaijan Petrochemical Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2020 12
Macroeconomic Forecasts 13
Economic Analysis 13
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 16
Table: GDP Growth Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2025) 16
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2025) 16
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2025) 17
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2025) 17
Table: Net Exports Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2025) 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 19
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 23
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 23
Market Overview 25
Industry Trends And Developments 27
Upstream 29
Company Profile 32
State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) 32
Regional Overview 35
Table: Northwest European Cracker Outages 38
Table: Europe Polymer Plant Turnarounds 38
Global Industry Overview 46
Demographic Forecast 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Azerbaijan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Azerbaijan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Azerbaijan 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Azerbaijan 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Azerbaijan 1990-2025) 56
Glossary 58
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 58
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

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