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Poland Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Polish polymer output growth diminished in Q116 alongside declining petrochemicals margins, amidincreased oil price volatility. However, the outlook for the rest of the year is positive, with exports set tosurge as Germany's economy picks up and Polish domestic demand strengthens.With production well under nameplate capacity, Poland has plenty of potential for high rates of growth,even without further capacity expansion. In Q116, Poland's polymer sector witnessed an overall positiveperformance, with polyethylene output up 1.2% y-o-y to 97,900 tonnes and polypropylene up 4.8% to25,500 tonnes, although PVC was down 11.2% to 72,500 tonnes. However, growth rates were slower thanthe level achieved in 2015, indicating that the industry was facing slower domestic demand and continued tobe operating well below its full potential.The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to draw investment and is planning for expansion. The focuswill be the plans of Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty, which are considering building a 1mntpa petrochemicals complex in Gdansk. The complex will either be centred on an ethylene cracker or anaromatics extraction plant and would be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Poland for many years.However, it is unlikely that the complex will come onstream over the forecast period, and much will dependon the direction of feedstock costs. Until there is firm confirmation of the plans, BMI will exclude thisproject from the forecasts.

Table Of Contents

Poland Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 9
Economic 10
Operational Risk 11
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts 18
Economic Analysis 18
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2013-2020) 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 23
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 23
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 27
Market Overview 29
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Upstream 33
Company Profile 38
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen) 38
Anwil 43
Grupa Lotos 45
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2014 (PLNmn) 49
Regional Overview 50
Table: Northwest European Cracker Outages 53
Table: Europe Polymer Plant Turnarounds 53
Global Industry Overview 61
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 73
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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