Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 90 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2014 as the country continues through
its rocky transitional period towards democracy. However, the announcement by Field Marshall Sisi in
March that he would run for president - a post BMI believes he will almost certainly win - should serve to
reduce political risk. We believe that his victory in the upcoming elections will provide a veneer of political
legitimacy, thereby releasing US aid flows, and should help the economy get back on track.

Increased security would help in reviving tourism, and other industries, and serve to boost container
volumes through Egypt's ports. Equally, should investment start flowing into the country once more then
dry bulk volumes for infrastructure projects could also see an uptick.

The presence of the Suez Canal in Egyptian territory provides an important source of income in fees and
associated businesses to the Egyptian economy; those ports and transit routes expected to see strongest
growth in 2014 are those located near to the canal, such as East Port Said and roads leading to it. However,
should instability bring danger to these ports then these could see volumes affected. On the upside,
continued delays to the opening of the widened Panama Canal are boosting throughput on the Egyptian
waterway.

Table Of Contents

Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Freight Transport ........ 9
Political ................... 11
Economic ................. 12
Business Environment 14
Industry Forecast ..... 15
Air Freight .............. 15
Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2011-2018 . . . 17
Rail Freight ............ 17
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2011-2018) . . . . . . . . 18
Maritime Freight ..... 18
Table: Maritime Freight (Egypt 2011-2018) . . 19
Trade 20
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2011-2018) . . . . 20
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2011-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (USDmn) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (USDmn) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Market Overview ...... 24
Industry Trends And Developments ................. 29
Inland Waterway ...... 29
Maritime ................ 29
Logisitics ................ 31
Air ... 31
Company Profile ....... 32
EgyptAir Cargo ......... 32
Egypt Transport and Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans) ................. 35
Political Outlook ....... 38
Domestic Politics ....... 38
Constitution Marks Break From The Past ............... 39
Sisi To Run For and Win Presidency ... 40
Presidential Elections To Be Held First .................. 41
Table: Egypt - Political Outlook 43
Long-term Political Outlook ............. 44
Oil Price Outlook ...... 51
Bunker fuel ............... 51
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) . . . . . . . . . . . 51
The Storm Clears For Shipping ........ 52
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices ............... 54
Long-Term Threats Linger .............. 55
Pressing Rotterdam and New York Harder ................ 56
Risks To Outlook ...... 57
Jet Fuel ................... 58
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl . 58
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall ...... 58
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth . . . . 60
Risks To Outlook ...... 63
Diesel . 64
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 64
New York's One-Off Heat Up ........... 64
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected ....... 67
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward .... 71
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks ........... 73
Risks To Outlook ...... 77
Macroeconomic Forecasts ........... 78
Economic Analysis ..... 78
Table: Egypt - Gdp By Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Demographic Forecast ................. 84
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 85
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . 86
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . 87
Methodology ............. 88
Industry Forecast Methodology ....... 88
Sector-Specific Methodology ........... 89
Sources .................. 90

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