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Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Ongoing improvement in Egypt's political situation - with the election of President el-Sisihaving brought in a level of stability not experienced since 2011 - will see the Egyptian freight transportsector enjoy continued expansion in 2015.
While this will not be spectacular, we expect positive growth involumes across all freight modes, supported by an improving consumer outlook, a recovery in the tourismsector, and increased construction.
Crucially, the outlook is not only brighter for the near term, withsignificant investment into transport infrastructure ensuring continued growth over future years.
Air freightwill be the growth outperformer, boosted by a recovery in tourist numbers.Following several quarters of anaemic growth, we see scope for a rapid acceleration in economic activity,giving the country the most positive growth outlook since the onset of the Arab Spring in January 2011.This is reflected in our outlook for economic growth and trade, and also, as a result, the freight transportsector.
We retain our expectation for real GDP growth of 3.0% in FY2015 (fiscal year running from July2014 - June 2015) and 3.8% in FY2016 from an estimated 2.25% in FY2014.
Our forecasts are a notableuptick compared with previous years.
Trade also is looking up, with a forecast expansion of 3.2% this year,accelerating to 4.7% next year, following FY2014's estimated 2.4%.

Table Of Contents

Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ....... 7
SWOT .... 9
Freight Transport ...... 9
Political . 11
Economic ....... 12
Operational Risk ..... 14
Industry Forecast ...... 16
Trade Forecast 16
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2012-2019) . . . . . 17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2012-2019) . . . . . . . 18
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013) . . . . . 19
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013) . . . . . 20
Road Freight Forecast ...... 20
Table: Road Freight (Egypt 2012-2019) 23
Rail Freight Forecast ....... 23
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2012-2019) . 26
Air Freight Forecast 26
Table: Air Freight (Egypt 2012-2019) . . 28
Company Profile 29
EgyptAir Cargo ....... 29
Egypt Transport and Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans) 32
Political Outlook 35
Domestic Politics ..... 35
Government Support To Limit Disruption ... 37
Table: Egypt - Political Overview . . . . . . 39
Long-Term Political Outlook ..... 40
Oil Price Outlook ....... 47
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts .... 47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018 . . . . 47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024) . . . . . . 48
Macroeconomic Forecasts ....... 50
Expenditure Breakdown .. 52
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Egypt 2012-2019) . . . . . . . 56
Demographic Forecast ..... 57
Demographic Outlook ...... 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025) . . . . 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025) . . . . . . 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025) . . . . . . . 59
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025) . . 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025) . . . . . . . 60
Methodology ...... 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 63
Sources 63

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