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China Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 112 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasingimpact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for keycommodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy andlivestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment andconsolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusinesssector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in2015.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2019/20: 12.0% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in public support tocorn production, output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields and the probableadoption of genetically modified (GM) corn in the coming years. China's production deficit will amountaround 6.7mn tonnes by the end of our forecast period.

- Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to beencouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations andthe ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 18.5% to 19.9mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by risingincome, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as confectionery, dairy,beverages and food processing.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1.34trn in 2016 (up 3.6% compared with 2015, growthforecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y ave (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 17
Rice Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) 20
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 21
Oilseeds Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 26
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020) 26
Sugar Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price 28
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2012-2020) 33
Cotton Outlook 33
Latest Updates 33
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook 34
Table: Risks To Outlook 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 39
Dairy Outlook 40
Latest Updates 40
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 41
Table: Risks To Outlook 41
Structural Trends 43
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM 46
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 49
Livestock Outlook 50
Latest Updates 50
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 52
Table: Risks To Outlook 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 57
Commodities Price Analysis 59
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 59
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 59
Featured Analysis 61
13th Five-Year Plan: Implications For Agribusiness 61
Upstream Analysis 65
Asia GM Outlook 65
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 68
Asia Machinery Outlook 70
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 74
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 77
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Latest Updates 82
Structural Trends 83
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020) 85
Regional Overview 88
Competitive Landscape 93
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 93
Demographic Forecast 95
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 96
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 96
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 97
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 97
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 98
Appendix 100
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 100
Summary Of Contents 100
Chapter 1: Overview 101
Table: Targets 101
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 102
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 103
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 104
Chapter 5: Industries 105
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 106
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 106
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 107
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 108
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 109
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 109
Others: 109
Methodology 111
Industry Forecast Methodology 111
Sector-Specific Methodology 112

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