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China Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 161 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future and we see particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, with GDP growth slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015 amidst low supply, elevated prices and the ongoing crackdown on red tape and government receptions, which also supported demand in recent years.

Agricultural production in China has recorded exceptional growth over recent years, driven by an expansion in area cultivated and strong growth in productivity. However, output growth is slowing down in some of the largest producers, due to pollution and land constraints. The government has acknowledged the challenge and is more reformist than ever. In 2015, China will continue to amend its stockpiling policy and will accelerate its reforms to partially liberalise land and prices, which will enable the country to maintain an elevated level of food self-sufficiency.

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .. 11
Agribusiness ... 11
Operational Risk . 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Grains Outlook ... 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . 17
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 17
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . 18
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . 23
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 24
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . 24
Rice Outlook ... 26
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2013-2019) 27
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) . 28
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 30
Soybean Outlook . 32
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . . 34
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . . 41
Sugar Outlook . 42
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . . 43
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . . 48
Cotton Outlook 50
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2013-2019) . 51
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . 58
Dairy Outlook . 60
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . . 61
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . 62
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 62
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) . . 62
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . . 71
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . 72
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 72
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) . . 72
Livestock Outlook 74
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 77
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 77
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 77
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2009-2013 . . 88
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2009-2013 . 88
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2010-2014 . 89
China Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Commodities Price Analysis . 90
Monthly Softs Strategy .. 90
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Bmi Forecasts . 99
Monthly Grains Strategy . 100
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts . . 107
Upstream Analysis .. 108
Asia GM Outlook ... 108
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use . . 111
Asia Machinery Outlook . 112
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 113
Asia Fertiliser Outlook ... 119
Downstream Analysis . 125
Food ... 125
Food Consumption ... 125
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2012-2019) . . 126
Confectionery .. 126
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2012-2019) . 127
Drink .. 129
Hot Drinks .. 129
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2014-2019) . . 130
Alcoholic Drinks .. 131
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2014-2019) . 132
Soft Drinks .. 133
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (China 2014-2019) . . 135
Mass Grocery Retail .. 137
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 138
Regional Overview .. 139
Competitive Landscape .. 145
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies (USD Mn . . 145
Company Profile .. 146
Global Company Strategy ... 146
Table: Financial Highlights 154
Demographic Forecast ... 155
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) . 156
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) . 156
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 157
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) . 157
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) . 158
Methodology 160
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 160
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 161

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