China Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 203 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing
impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key
commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High
demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these
industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through
challenging times, with GDP slowing, consumer trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredient prices
rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best
seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price-fixing schemes, which led to a
record fine for top producers.


Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 242.6mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by a
steady improvement in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained
public support.
- Pork consumption growth to 2018: 21.6% to 65.4mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for
Chinese consumers and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain
resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.
- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 8.9% to 15.2mn tonnes. Production will be supported by
improving yields and soaring domestic demand.

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .. 10
Agribusiness ... 10
Business Environment .. 12
Industry Forecast .. 13
Sugar Outlook . 13
Table: China Sugar Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 14
Table: China Sugar Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 19
Dairy Outlook . 21
Table: China Butter Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 22
Table: China Cheese Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 22
Table: China Milk Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 23
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 23
Table: China Butter Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 30
Table: China Cheese Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 30
Table: China Milk Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . 30
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 30
Soybean Outlook . 32
Table: China Soybean Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 34
Table: China Soybean Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 39
Rice Outlook ... 40
Table: China Rice Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 41
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) . 42
Table: China Rice Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 46
Grains Outlook ... 48
Table: China Barley Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 50
Table: China Corn Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 50
Table: China Wheat Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 51
Table: China Barley Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 60
Table: China Corn Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . 61
Table: China Wheat Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 61
Livestock Outlook 62
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 64
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 64
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 64
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 77
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . 77
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 77
Cotton Outlook 79
Table: China Cotton Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . . 80
Table: China Cotton Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 85
Imports Outlook . 87
China Agricultural Imports Spree: Winners and Losers . 87
Table: Selected Countries - Exposure To Agricultural Exports To China, 2012 . . 90
Table: China Future Agricultural Imports - Potential Winners And Losers 91
China Future Imports: Enduring Trends and New Trajectories ... 93
Table: China - Production and Consumption Forecast For Select Commodities (kt, Unless Otherwise Stated) . 98
Featured Analysis 107
China's Commodity Futures On The Ascent 107
Table: Global - Top Commodities Futures Contracts . 115
Commodities Price Analysis ... 116
Monthly Grains Update .. 116
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Forecasts . . 124
Monthly Softs Update . 125
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts . . 135
Upstream Analysis .. 136
Asia Machinery Outlook . 136
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn) . 138
Asia GM Outlook ... 144
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012 . . 150
Asia Fertiliser Outlook ... 150
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter) . . 154
Downstream Analysis . 158
Food ... 158
Food Consumption ... 158
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 . 159
Canned Food .. 159
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018 160
Confectionery .. 160
Drink .. 162
Hot Drinks .. 162
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018 . . 163
Alcoholic Drinks .. 163
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 164
Soft Drinks .. 165
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018 . . 166
Mass Grocery Retail .. 168
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 . . 169
Regional Overview .. 170
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD) . . 174
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates and Programmes . . 176
Competitive Landscape .. 177
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies . 177
Company Profile .. 178
Charoen Pokphand Foods ... 178
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2009-2013 187
Wilmar 188
Table: Financial Highlights 2009-2013 197
Demographic Forecast ... 198
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 199
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . 200
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 201
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 201
Methodology 202
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 202
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 203

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