Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: While the Netherlands is a low risk market from the point of view of multinational drugmakers, the country’s modest per capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals relative to other Western Europe countries remains an issue. A further challenge facing drugmakers is cost-containment, which can only intensify as the Netherlands enters a phase of slower economic growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.70bn (US$9.31bn) in 2011 to EUR6.54bn (US$8.44bn) in 2012; -2.4% decline in local currency terms and -9.4% decline in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: EUR63.32bn (US$88.02bn) in 2011 to EUR65.09bn (US$83.96bn) in 2012; +2.8% growth in local currency terms and -4.60% growth in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: EUR11.41bn (US$15.86bn) in 2011 to EUR11.77bn (US$15.18bn) in 2012; 3.2% growth in local currency terms and -4.2% in US dollar terms
- Business Environment Rating: The Netherlands’ composite score in our latest Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix for Western Europe is unchanged from the previous quarter. The figure of 64.2 out of the maximum 100 ranks it seventh out of the 10 markets in the matrix. Despite a developed healthcare market, the Netherlands’ overall ranking continues to be propped up by its favourable risk variable, with the rewards negatively impacted by costcontainment, in combination with patent expirations.
Key Trends And Developments • In April 2012, a Chinese traditional medicine was authorized for sale in a European market for the first time – Di'ao Xin Xue Kang, a well-known herbal medicine produced by the Chengdu based Di'ao Group, received marketing authorization from the Medicines Evaluation Board of the Netherlands, making it the first Chinese traditional drug to be identified as a therapeutic medicine in the European Union.
BMI Economic View: The Dutch economy's exposure to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh heavily on economic activity and confidence. As a result, our weaker outlook for domestic demand means we now forecast the economy to contract by 0.3% in 2012, from our previous 0.4% real GDP growth forecast. Weak longer-term economic activity in the eurozone is also set to drag on the Netherland's growth trajectory and we forecast economic growth to average a weak 1.1% to 2016..
BMI Political View: The stability of Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte's minority government is likely to come under increased pressure in 2012, as the negotiations over Dutch involvement in eurozone bailout packages expose rifts between the coalition parties. In particular, with the far-right Party For Freedom gaining momentum, a coalition breakdown cannot be precluded, which could potentially stall some of the government’s fiscal austerity measures.