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South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: South Korea will remain a global refining powerhouse, due to the sheer size of its refiningsector and the sophisticated nature of existing refineries. Tepid consumption growth outlook for refinedfuels amid rising competition externally will encourage refiners to lower run rates in the coming years,negatively impacting exports. Hefty off-take arrangements with international suppliers suggest that Korea isat substantial risk of having over-contracted its gas needs.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- We do not expect any additions to South Korea's current refining capacity of 3.0mn b/d within the nextdecade, as rising competition in the exports market and tightening conditions in the domestic market limitscope for major expansion campaigns.

- The Middle East will remain the country's largest supplier of crude oil, though the government is activelytrying to diversify its crude sources. Shipments from Iran nearly doubled compared to the previous year,while ongoing diversification efforts will provide opportunities for suppliers in Europe, West Africa andLatin America to increase their market share.

- Korea's Q116 LNG imports increased 0.5% y-o-y, as cooler-than-average temperatures over the first twomonths of the year boosted demand for heating. Qatar remained the top supplier, while Australia saw asignificant upsurge in its export volumes.

- Korea will remain a key supplier of refined fuels to the global markets. Gasoline is mostly shipped tobuyers in Asia, including Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, while its low-sulphur diesel is in much soughtafter by Australia and European importers, such as the Netherlands.

- The government could seek to liberalise the domestic retail electricity market and LNG trading sector,currently dominated by KEPCO and KOGAS respectively, to encourage greater private sectorparticipation. Such a move could reportedly lower electricity rates by 10.0% (including for that of gasfiredgeneration), encouraging greater consumption, though cost-competitiveness of nuclear and coalpose headwinds.

Table Of Contents

South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Projects 12
Table: South Korea - Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2014-2019) 15
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2020-2025) 15
Refining 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2020-2025) 18
Refined Fuels Consumption 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2020-2025) 21
Gas Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2020-2025) 25
Trade - Oil 26
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025) 29
Refined Oil Trade Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2020-2025) 35
Industry Risk Reward Index 36
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 38
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 40
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
South Korea - Risk/Reward Index 42
Upstream Index - Overview 42
Upstream Index - Rewards 42
Upstream Index - Risks 42
Downstream Index - Overview 42
Market Overview 43
South Korea Energy Market Overview 43
Fiscal Regime 43
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 43
Open Blocks 43
Table: Open Offshore Blocks 43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 45
Oil Refineries 45
Table: Refineries In South Korea 45
Oil Storage 45
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In South Korea 46
LNG Terminals 46
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea 46
Gas Storage 47
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea 47
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In South Korea Under Construction 47
Gas Pipelines 48
Table: Gas Distribution Pipelines In South Korea 48
Competitive Landscape 49
Competitive Landscape Summary 49
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil and Gas Sector 50
Table: Key Downstream Players 50
Company Profile 51
KOGAS 51
Latest Updates 51
Table: Major Current Assets 52
Table: KOGAS - Key Financial Data 53
KNOC 54
Latest Updates 54
Table: Major Producing Assets 55
Table: KNOC - Key Financial Data 55
Regional Overview 56
Asia Regional Overview 56
Glossary 64
Table: Glossary Of Terms 64
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Source 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Table: Weighting 71

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