PharmaPoint: Obesity - US Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

After a more than decade long dormancy, the Obesity market is undergoing a revival with the advent of several novel therapies that will lend considerable visibility to this indication space. This includes the use of combination therapies that simultaneously target multiple pathways and regulate appetite control, as well as novel molecular entities with new mechanisms of action. Due to this growing pipeline of late-stage drugs, this market is expected to experience substantial growth over the next decade.

New US entrants are expected to obtain significant market share during the forecast period, as this is a key potential market with an obese population exceeding that of Europe, Japan, and Canada combined. With a severely underserved market, any new players will most certainly have a large potential patient share to gain. The expected drivers of market growth are an increased awareness of the importance of preemptive treatment and sustained management of the condition.

Scope

- Overview of Obesity including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

- Detailed information on the key drugs in the US including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

- Sales forecast for the top drugs in the US from 2012-2022.

- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the US Obesity market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return.

- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Obesity.

- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential.

- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance.

- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in the US.

Table Of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Introduction 10
2.1 Catalyst 11
2.2 Related Reports 12
3 Disease Overview 14
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 17
3.1.4 Quality of Life 18
3.2 Symptoms 18
4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Treatment Overview 19
4.2 US 24
4.2.1 Diagnosis 24
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 25
5 Competitive Assessment 29
5.1 Overview 29
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 33
5.3 Product Profiles: Drugs 35
5.3.1 Phentermine 35
5.3.2 Xenical (orlistat) 39
5.3.3 Qsymia (phentermine-topiramate) 42
5.3.4 Belviq (lorcaserin) 49
5.3.5 Topiramate 54
5.3.6 Oblean (cetilistat) 58
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 61
6.1 Overview 61
6.2 A Drug with Greater Than 10% Average Weight Loss 62
6.2.1 Unmet Need 62
6.2.2 Gap Analysis 63
6.2.3 Opportunity 64
6.3 A Drug with Increased Safety and Tolerability 64
6.3.1 Unmet Need 64
6.3.2 Gap Analysis 65
6.3.3 Opportunity 65
6.4 Reimbursement by Private and Public Payers 66
6.4.1 Unmet Need 66
6.4.2 Gap Analysis 67
6.4.3 Opportunity 67
6.5 Increased Physician Education 68
6.5.1 Unmet Need 68
6.5.2 Gap Analysis 69
6.5.3 Opportunity 69
6.6 Increased Drug-Treatment Rate 69
6.6.1 Unmet Need 69
6.6.2 Gap Analysis 70
6.6.3 Opportunity 70
6.7 Improved Guidelines 70
6.7.1 Unmet Need 70
6.7.2 Gap Analysis 71
6.7.3 Opportunity 71
6.8 Improved Approach to Diagnosis 72
6.8.1 Unmet Need 72
6.8.2 Gap Analysis 72
6.8.3 Opportunity 72
7 Pipeline Assessment 73
7.1 Overview 73
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 76
7.2.1 Contrave 79
7.2.2 Victoza (liraglutide) 83
7.2.3 Velneperit 89
7.2.4 Empatic 93
8 Market Outlook 98
8.1 United States 99
8.1.1 Forecast 99
8.1.2 Key Events 103
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 104
9 Appendix 108
9.1 Bibliography 108
9.2 Abbreviations 115
9.3 Research Methodology 117
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 117
9.4.1 Percent Drug-Treated Obesity Patients 118
9.4.2 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 118
9.4.3 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 119
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 119
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 120
9.4.6 Generic Erosion 123
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 123
9.5 Physicians, Specialists, and Payers Included in This Study 124
9.6 About the Authors 127
9.6.1 Analysts 127
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 128
9.6.3 Director - Medical Devices 128
9.6.4 Global Head of Healthcare 129
9.7 About GlobalData 130
9.8 Disclaimer 130

List of Tables

Table 1: Target Pathways in the Treatment of Obesity 17
Table 2: Symptoms of Obesity 18
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Obesity 22
Table 4: Most Prescribed Drugs for Obesity by Class in the Global Markets, 2013 23
Table 5: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI and Waist Circumference, and the Associated Disease Risk 24
Table 6: Bariatric Treatment Attributes 32
Table 7: Leading Drug Treatments for Obesity, 2013 33
Table 8: Marketed Obesity Treatment Devices by Type 34
Table 9: Product Profile - Phentermine 36
Table 10: Phentermine SWOT Analysis, 2013 39
Table 11: Product Profile - Xenical 40
Table 12: Xenical SWOT Analysis, 2013 42
Table 13: Product Profile - Qsymia 44
Table 14: Qsymia SWOT Analysis, 2013 48
Table 15: Product Profile - Belviq 51
Table 16: Belviq SWOT Analysis, 2013 53
Table 17: Product Profile - Topiramate 55
Table 18: Topiramate SWOT Analysis, 2013 57
Table 19: Product Profile - Oblean 59
Table 20: ObleanSWOT Analysis, 2013 60
Table 21: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Obesity 62
Table 22: Endpoint Analysis of Clinical Trials Conducted in Obesity, 2013 75
Table 23: Obesity - Phase II-III Pipeline, 2013 76
Table 24: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Obesity, 2013 78
Table 25: Obesity Treatment Pipeline Devices by Type 78
Table 26: Product Profile - Contrave 80
Table 27: Contrave SWOT Analysis, 2013 83
Table 28: Product Profile - Victoza 84
Table 29: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2013 88
Table 30: Product Profile - Velneperit 89
Table 31: Velneperit SWOT Analysis, 2013 92
Table 32: Product Profile - Empatic 94
Table 33: Empatic SWOT Analysis, 2013 97
Table 34: Sales Forecasts ($) for Obesity in the United States, 2012-2022 101
Table 35: Key Events Impacting Sales for Obesity in the United States, 2012-2022 103
Table 36: Obesity Market in the United States - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 104
Table 37: Key Launch Dates 119
Table 38: Key Patent Expiries 119

List of Figures

Figure 1: Treatment Algorithm for Obesity 21
Figure 2: Projected Increase in the Pharmacological Treatment of Overweight and Obese Patients in the United States, 2012-2022 25
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Obesity, 2012-2022 77
Figure 4: Sales for Obesity in the United States by Drug Class, 2012-2022 102

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