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Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture sector over the short term. Thelimited amount of arable land available for acreage expansion, as well as poor safety standards, willconstrain growth over our forecast period. Structural problems still plague the industry, in particular thelogistical challenges of food transportation within the country. Over the long term, we believe there is muchmore room for growth and improvement in sub-sectors such as grains and livestock. That said, as theagricultural sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population but contributes only 20%of the country's GDP, there is an obvious need for improvement in efficiency of operations. GM food policyis also an interesting area to look at, as Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most open countries to GMfood cultivation in Asia.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 1.37mn tonnes. The main driver behind this growth will be animprovement in yields. Wheat cultivation remains a preferred option for non-irrigated land given the lowrequirement for input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour).

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 146,000 tonnes. Production will fail to return to the levelsreached in the early 2000s. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops, such as cotton,we do not foresee sugar production to pick up significantly any time soon.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 244,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higherdisposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to supportthe recovery of the sector.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.5%, same level as in 2015. Predicted to average 6.6% y-o-y between2016 and 2020.

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 6.2% y-o-y average, down from 6.4% y-o-y in 2015. Predicted toaverage 6.2% from 2016 to 2020.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.0bn in 2016 (up 6.6% y-o-y from USD17.8bn in2015; forecast to grow annually by 5.9% on average from 2016 to 2020).

Table Of Contents

Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Table: Bangladesh - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) 17
Grains Outlook 18
Table: Bangladesh - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Table: Bangladesh - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 23
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) 27
Livestock Outlook 28
Table: Bangladesh - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Key Risks To Outlook 28
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Bangladesh 2014-2020) 31
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Bangladesh 2015-2020) 32
Commodities Price Analysis 33
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 33
Upstream Analysis 35
Asia Machinery Outlook 35
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 39
Asia GM Outlook 42
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 45
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 47
Regional Overview 52
Competitive Landscape 58
Table: Bangladesh - Major Agribusiness Companies 58
Demographic Forecast 59
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bangladesh 1990-2025) 60
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bangladesh 1990-2025) 60
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Bangladesh 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group (Bangladesh 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bangladesh 1990-2025) 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sector-Specific Methodology 65

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