Philippines Agribusiness Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 117 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: As an indication of the government's increased focused on the agriculture market, the Department of Agriculture's budget for 2012 has been increased significantly. The PHP48.7bn (US Dollar 1.1mn) is more than 60% higher than the year before.Most of the funds will go into developing and improving rural infrastructure as well as improving on farming infrastructure such as farm-to-market roads and host-harvest activities. BMI believes that this will pose upside risks to production estimates especially for key crops such as rice and also, livestock.
Key Trends - Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 21.7% to 2.80mn tonnes. Production will be supported by strong demand from the soft drinks segments . To 2016, BMI is projecting spending on soft drinks to rise by 47% from its 2011 level to US Dollar 1.11bn and spending on confectionery to grow by 12% to US Dollar 557mn.
- Corn consumption growth to 2016: 10.68% to 8.0mn tonnes. With around three quarters of corn used as animal feed, growth in consumption will be driven by the expansion of the poultry and pork markets and some consumer demand as the government tries to reduce per capita rice consumption.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 4.3% to 868,300 tonnes. Consumption will be aided by the spread of fast food outlets (which carry a high volume of chicken products) and the increasing popularity of processed meats sold through modern retail outlets as opposed to wet industry s where the majority of chicken is currently sold. A greater proportion of the country's needs will also have to be supplied by imports.
- 2012f Real Gross Domestic Product Growth: 3.9% (up from 3.7% in 2011; predicted to average 4.1% from 2011 until 2016).
- Consumer Price Inflation 2012f: 4.4% (up from 3.8% y-o-y in 2011). - Central Bank Policy Rate 2012f: 4.0% (down from 4.5% in 2011)

Industry Developments
In late 2011, the GPH formally informed the World Trade Organization (WTO) its intention to start talks on extending its quantitative restriction (QR) on rice imports to 2015 as part of its self-sufficiency efforts.
Although the Philippines has greatly increased yields over the years and is one of the highest-yielding rice countries in the region, it is still only 42nd out of 91 rice producing countries in global ranking, according to the US Dollar A. We believe that consumption growth, which should keep pace with the annual population growth of 2%, will continue to outstrip domestic supply, forcing the country to remain a net importer of rice. Indeed, we note that even the Department of Agriculture recently acknowledged that the country would still have to rely on imports to meet the buffer requirements by 2013.
The Swine Development Council has alleged that illegal chicken and pork imports have cost the government an estimated PHP3.7bn (US Dollar 87mn) annually in tax revenues. Livestock importers have been reportedly misdeclaring imports so as to avoid paying higher tariff of 40%. In fact, according to the chairman of the Council, Mr. Rosendo So, some 20% of the PHP25bn (US Dollar 590mn) domestic backyard market has suffered as a result. Although painful in the short term, BMI believes that this process of market consolidation could strengthen the domestic livestock segment over the longer term as it improves in efficiency and productivity as competition from foreign-imported meat increases.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Philippines Agriculture SWOT ... 7
Philippines Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Philippines Dairy Outlook . 9
Data : Data : Philippines Milk Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 .. 10
Data : Philippines Butter Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 .. 10
Data : Philippines Cheese Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 . 10
Data : Philippines Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 . 10
Data : Philippines Milk Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 . 12
Data : Philippines Butter Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 .. 12
Data : Philippines Cheese Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 . 12
Data : Philippines Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 . 12
Philippines Livestock Outlook ... 13
Data : Philippines Poultry Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 14
Data : Philippines Pork Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 14
Data : Philippines Beef and Veal Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 . 14
Data : Philippines Poultry Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 15
Data : Philippines Pork Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 16
Data : Philippines Beef and Veal Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 . 16
Philippines Rice Outlook... 17
Data : Philippines Rice Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 . 18
Data : Philippines Rice Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 . 19
Philippines Grains Outlook ... 21
Data : Philippines Wheat Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 .. 21
Data : Philippines Corn Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 22
Data : Philippines Wheat Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2016 .. 23
Data : Philippines Corn Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2016 23
Philippines Sugar Outlook 24
Data : Philippines Sugar Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2011 to 2016 ... 24
Data : Philippines Sugar Production, Consumption and Trade, from 2008 to 2012 ... 27
Commodity Price Analysis ... 29
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 29
Coffee: Holding Key Support ... 31
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact . 33
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 34
Cotton: Downside Risks ... 36
Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Projections .. 37
Monthly Grains Update 38
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising .. 39
Corn: Moderation In Place .. 41
Soybean: Looking Weak ... 43
Rice: Temporary Strength 45
Commodity Performance . 46
Philippines Demographic Outlook ... 47
Data : Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 48
Data : Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 49
Data : Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 50
Data : Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 50
BMI Projection Modelling 51
How We Generate Our Market Projections ... 51

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