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Philippines Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 108 pages

BMI View:
We hold a positive view on Philippines agribusiness sector in the long term, given the country's potential for new sectors expansion, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook for sugar production, and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth.

These inefficiencies will become increasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which is supposed to lead to trade and investment liberalization in the region. Although the Philippines' government appears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production, agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from its neighbours over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
- Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 19.6% to 2.9mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be driven by improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which is aimed at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing to farmers.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .. 10
Agribusiness ... 10
Operational Risk . 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Grains Outlook ... 14
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)..................... 15
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)....................15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)..................... 18
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)....................18
Rice Outlook ... 20
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2019)..................... . 21
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)..................... . 26
Sugar Outlook . 27
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)....................28
Table: Philippines - Sugar Mills Operational Data......................... 29
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)....................32
Dairy Outlook . 34
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019).................... . . 35
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)....................35
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)..................... . 35
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)................. 36
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014).................... . . 40
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)....................40
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)..................... . 41
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)................. 41
Livestock Outlook 42
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)..................... . 43
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019)..................... 43
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Philippines 2014-2019).................... . . 43
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)..................... . 47
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014)..................... 47
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Philippines 2009-2014).................... . . 48
Commodities Price Analysis . 49
Monthly Softs Strategy .. 49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Bmi Forecasts......................58
Monthly Grains Strategy ... 59
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts...................... . . 66
Upstream Analysis 67
Asia GM Outlook . 67
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use........................... 71
Asia Fertiliser Outlook . 72
Asia Machinery Outlook ... 77
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares......................79
Downstream Analysis ... 84
Mass Grocery Retail 84
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)........... . . 86
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type.........................86
Drink 87
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018).......87
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)........... . 88
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)...... 90
Food . 91
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018).............92
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)......93
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018).......... . . 94
Regional Overview 95
Competitive Landscape .. 101
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies............................ 101
Demographic Forecast ... 102
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)..................... . 103
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025).......................103
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025).................. 104
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)......................104
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)...................... 105
Methodology 107
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 107
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 108

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