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Philippines Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term, given thecountry's potential for expansion into new sectors, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook forsugar production and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. ThePhilippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic andforeign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems,especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. These inefficiencies will becomeincreasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which issupposed to lead to trade and investment liberalisation in the region. Although the Philippines' governmentappears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production,agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from itsneighbours over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 21.0% to 2.8mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be drivenby improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which isaiming at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing tofarmers.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 16.3% to 1.3mn tonnes. Poultry production will record steadybut unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.

- Milk production growth to 2019/20: 23.4% to 25,100 tonnes. Milk and other dairy production willremain very low in the Philippines, although it will record strong growth due to low base effects. Thegovernment is committed to increase domestic supply of liquid milk, via National Dairy DevelopmentPlan.

- Agribusiness market value: 2.5% increase to USD32.9bn in 2016, forecast to grow on average 4.7%annually between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.0% (up from 5.8% in 2015; predicted to average 5.9% over 2016-2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 2.0% y-o-y (up from 1.5% in 2015; predicted to average 3.5% over2016-2020).

Table Of Contents

Philippines Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Philippines - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 15
Rice Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Philippines - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 21
Sugar Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: Philippines - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: Philippines - Sugar Mills Operational Data 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 28
Dairy Outlook 28
Latest Updates 28
Table: Philippines - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 32
Livestock Outlook 34
Latest Updates 34
Table: Philippines - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 35
Table: Risks To Outlook 35
Structural Trends 36
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 40
Commodities Price Analysis 41
Commodities Outlook 41
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 41
Upstream Analysis 42
Asia GM Outlook 42
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 45
Asia Machinery Outlook 47
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 51
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 54
Downstream Analysis 59
Food 59
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019) 60
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019) 62
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 63
Regional Overview 64
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 69
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025) 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sector-Specific Methodology 76

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