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  5. > Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Recent developments in Vietnam's economic and business environments add further weight toour positive view on its agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms ofproduction, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairysectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports ofrice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets.The fulfilment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness andimproves both product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp upinvestments on crop productivity in order to not be left behind and, if it does, it will be able to produce morevalue-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Key Forecasts

- Pork production growth to 2019/20: 19.9% to 3.0mn tonnes. After going through challenging timesamidst high feed costs, disease outbreaks and weaker growth, the livestock sector has been on therecovery trend since 2014-2015. Growth will remain strong in the medium term, helped by higher localmeat prices and economic growth.

- Milk production growth to 2019/20: 61.9% to 876,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbersand increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growingimport dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role aslarger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milk production.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 23.0% to 2.4mn tonnes. Rising incomes, population growth andincreased consumption of manufactured food products will help sugar consumption grow quickly in thecoming years. Domestic production growth will not be able to keep up with consumption expansion.

- 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD41.1bn (up from USD38.9bn in 2015; growthexpected to average 4.5% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.7% in 2015; predicted to average 6.3% over 2016-2020).

- 2016 consumer price index: 2.1% y-o-y (up from 0.6% in 2015; predicted to average 4.3% over2016-2020).

Table Of Contents

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Vietnam - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2012-2020) 15
Rice Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Vietnam - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2012-2020) 20
Dairy Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Vietnam - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Structural Trends 23
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 28
Livestock Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Table: Vietnam - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 35
Coffee Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: Vietnam - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 37
Table: Risks To Outlook 37
Structural Trends 38
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2012-2020) 42
Commodities Price Analysis 43
Commodities Price Forecasts 43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 43
Upstream Analysis 45
Asia Machinery Outlook 45
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 49
Asia GM Outlook 52
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 56
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 57
Downstream Analysis 62
Food 62
Latest Updates 62
Structural Trends 63
Table: Food Sales (Vietnam 2013-2020) 65
Regional Overview 68
Competitive Landscape 73
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn) 73
Demographic Forecast 74
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) 75
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) 75
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) 77
Methodology 79
Industry Forecast Methodology 79
Sector-Specific Methodology 80

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