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  5. > South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The South Korean agricultural sector holds a modestly subdued outlook over our forecastperiod. The livestock industry has been plagued with various disease outbreaks in the past that have largelybeen contained since. Government-led efforts will benefit the industry over the longer term and help it toremain relevant. These include the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow thementry into the food processing business; plans to modernise traditional methods of food production; thecreation of new agricultural food districts for exporters; and the introduction of state designation of foodexporting companies.Key Forecasts

- Cheese consumption growth to 2020: 22.8% to 153,500 tonnes. As Western food has become morepopular in Korea, demand for cheese has expanded rapidly. The majority of cheese is consumed inrestaurants and fast food outlets, and comes in the form of processed cheese. Exporters with the lowestprices, such as the US, have gained market share in supplying the South Korean cheese industry.

- Poultry meat production growth to 2019/20: 29.1% to 1.07mn tonnes. Poultry production will recordrelatively strong growth driven by increased export opportunities as the country recovers from severaloutbreaks of avian influenza in 2013-2015

- Rice consumption growth to 2020: 2.8% to 4.5mn tonnes. As South Koreans substitute theircarbohydrate intake with bread instead of rice, consumption of the grain is expected to post only weakgrowth.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD33.65bn in 2016 (up 1.1% compared with 2015, growthforecast to average 2.5% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from 2.6% in 2015, forecast to average 3.2% between 2016 and2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.6% y-o-y ave (up from 0.7% in 2015, forecast to average2.1% between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 central bank policy rate: 1.25% y-o-y ave (down from 1.50% in 2015, forecast to average1.75% between 2016 and 2020).

Table Of Contents

South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Rice Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: South Korea - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (South Korea 2013-2020) 14
Grains Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: South Korea - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (South Korea 2013-2020) 18
Livestock Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: South Korea - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 20
Structural Trends 21
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (South Korea 2013-2020) 24
Dairy Outlook 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: South Korea Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Risks To Outlook 25
Structural Trends 26
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (South Korea 2013-2020) 28
Commodities Forecast 30
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 30
Upstream Analysis 32
Asia GM Outlook 32
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 35
Asia Machinery Outlook 37
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 41
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 44
Downstream Analysis 49
Food 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 50
Table: Food Sales (South Korea 2013-2020) 51
Regional Overview 54
Demographic Forecast 59
Demographic Outlook 59
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Korea 1990-2025) 60
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Korea 1990-2025) 60
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Korea 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group (South Korea 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Korea 1990-2025) 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sector-Specific Methodology 65

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