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  4. > China Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

China Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 93 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment. Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk team’s unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational risks.The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

Table Of Contents

China Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, March 2016 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 8
SWOT 9
Commercial Banking 9
Political 10
Economy 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Industry Trend Analysis 14
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 20
Asia Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 21
Market Overview 22
Asia Commercial Banking Outlook 22
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2015 22
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit and Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 22
Table: Comparison of Total Assets and Client Loans and Client Deposits (USDbn) 23
Table: Comparison of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 24
On The Brink: Five Scenarios For Chinese Growth 25
Competitive Landscape 32
Market Structure 32
Protagonists 32
Table: Protagonists In China's Commercial Banking Sector 32
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 33
List Of Banks 33
Table: Policy Banks And The 'Big Four' State-Owned Commercial Banks 33
Table: Joint-Stock Commercial Banks, City Commercial Banks And Rural Commercial Banks 33
Table: Locally Registered Foreign Banks 34
Company Profile 36
Agricultural Development Bank of China 36
Table: Stock Market Indicators 38
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn) 38
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 38
Table: Key Ratios (%) 39
Bank of China 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators 42
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn) 42
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) 43
China Construction Bank 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators 46
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn) 46
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 47
China Merchants Bank 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators 49
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn) 50
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 50
Table: Key Ratios (%) 50
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 53
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn) 53
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 54
Table: Key Ratios (%) 54
Regional Overview 55
Industry Trend Analysis 55
Global Industry Overview 61
Industry Forecast 61
The Reserves Penalty 61
Mixed Results So Far 64
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? 69
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent 70
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary 72
Demographic Forecast 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 76
13th Five-Year Plan 78
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 78
Summary Of Contents 78
Chapter 1: Overview 79
Table: Targets 79
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 80
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 81
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 82
Chapter 5: Industries 83
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 84
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 84
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 85
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 86
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 87
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 87
Others: 87
Methodology 89
Industry Forecast Methodology 89
Sector-Specific Methodology 90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 91
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators 92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 93

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