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Japan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slow economic growth, negative demographic trends and the growing prominence of nuclearand renewables energy will curtail Japan's long-term consumption of refined fuels and LNG. Theaggressive government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector poses significant downside risk to ourrefining capacity forecasts, though improving run rates and more flexible production slates will allowJapan to see a small surplus in refined fuels from 2016.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- The government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector will see four of Japan's five largestrefineries merge operations in the coming years. JX Holdings and TonenGeneral are expected to mergeby April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise between October 2016and April 2017.

- Japan's nuclear restarts continue to progress at a gradual rate, amid strong public opposition. In March2016, the Otsu district order issued an injunction to halt operations at Kansai Electric's No.3 and No.4nuclear reactors, while in April 2016, the Fukuoka court upheld a previous ruling to allow KyushuElectric's Sendai No.1 and No.2 reactors to continue to operate.

- LNG imports will continue its downslide over the next 10 years, as slower economic growth, negativedemographic trends and rising prominence of alternative energy sources weigh on demand. We forecastnet LNG imports to fall by 8.9% over 2016-2025.

- Slower domestic demand growth will be unmatched by improving run rates at existing refineries, whichwill allow Japan to become a small net exporter of refined fuels from this year. This will negatively affectthe likes of South Korea, India, Malaysia and the Middle East, which are Japan's largest suppliers ofrefined fuels.

Table Of Contents

Japan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Japan - Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Japan 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Gas Production (Japan 2020-2025) 17
Refining 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2020-2025) 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2020-2025) 23
Gas Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2020-2025) 26
Trade - Oil 27
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates 27
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends 27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 29
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates 29
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
Japan - Risk/Reward Index 37
Japan Upstream Index - Overview 37
Japan Downstream Index - Overview 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 39
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 41
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 43
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Market Overview 45
Japan Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Fiscal Regime 46
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Refineries In Japan 47
Service Stations 48
Oil Storage Facilities 49
LNG Terminals 49
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Japan 49
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Gas Storage Facilities 51
Gas Pipelines 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil and Gas Sector 53
Regional Overview 54
Asia Regional Overview 54
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Terms 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Source 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 68
Table: Weighting 69

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