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  4. > Russia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

Russia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Forthcoming investment projects focusing on import substitution should address the supply/demand imbalance and move Russia to self-sufficiency; in some segments Russia will become a netexporter. With domestic market growth slower than capacity growth coupled with a weak rouble and lowfeedstock costs, Russia is likely to lead to far higher levels of exports than previously expected.The Russian petrochemicals industry is outperforming the overall economy with capacity utilisation risingamid economic conditions that are favourable to the sector. In the January-April period, polypropylene (PP)production grew 7.0% y-o-y and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) output rose 4.6%. Production wasboosted by an increase in capacity, stronger domestic demand and a weak rouble that protected the economyfrom imports. This follows a stronger performance in 2015 when basic chemicals output rose 6.3% andethylene production grew 16.4%.However, growth hides the sector's structural inefficiencies which have deterred investment, particularly inthe country's oriented production. Challenges include the country's manufacturing sector, which is notcompetitive without the presence of government incentives. Importantly, we do not expect such hurdles tobe cleared in the short-to-medium term, resulting in a subdued outlook for the country's export-ledindustries.

Table Of Contents

Russia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Table: Russia - Petrochemicals Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2020 20
Macroeconomic Forecast 22
Economic Analysis 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 29
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 33
Russia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 33
Market Overview 35
Table: Cracker Capacity Data - Historical Data and Forecasts ('000 tpa) 40
Industry Trends And Developments 42
Fertiliser 47
Upstream 47
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Completed and Under Development 49
Company Profile 50
Sibur Holding 50
Table: Financial Highlights (RUBmn, Unless Stated Otherwise) 53
Lukoil 54
Table: Financial Results 57
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK) 58
Table: Financial Results (RUBmn) 60
Regional Overview 61
Table: Northwest European Cracker Outages 64
Table: Europe Polymer Plant Turnarounds 64
Global Industry Overview 72
Demographic Forecast 79
Demographic Outlook 79
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 81
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 81
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 82
Glossary 84
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 84
Methodology 85
Industry Forecast Methodology 85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 87
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 89

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