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Germany Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 115 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Germany, one of the largest single pharmaceutical markets in Europe and the wider OECD, will continue to exhibit high and rising underlying demand for branded pharmaceuticals generated by an ageing population with an increasing burden of chronic non-communicable conditions. However, drugmakers will experience continued deterioration in previously exceptional potential rewards as fierce price competition is intensified by additional restrictions on reimbursement and increasingly costly regulation. In addition, the German economy, driven by the European and global export of high valueadded manufactured goods, will remain particularly vulnerable to unexpected external shocks; a notable source of long-term risk to multinationals. However, the pharmaceutical industry's contribution to Germany's positive balance of trade and global influence will sustain strong resistance to developments that might further reduce the country's future competitiveness as a global hub for the industry.


Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: from EUR39.95bn (USD53.53bn) in 2014 to EUR39.83bn (USD43.81bn) in 2015;
-0.3% in local currency terms and -18.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised from Q215
- Healthcare: from EUR317.55bn (USD425.52bn) in 2014 to EUR326.19bn (USD586.81bn) in 2015;
+2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215

Table Of Contents

Germany Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic ... 12
Operational Risk . 13
Industry Forecast .. 14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 15
Healthcare Market Forecast .. 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn) 21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms) . 22
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR) 22
Patented Drug Market Forecast . 23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 25
Generic Drug Market Forecast .. 26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) . 28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019) 33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2013-2019) 34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 35
Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 36
Economic Analysis ... 36
GDP By Expenditure .. 39
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Germany 2012-2019) . 41
Industry Risk Reward Index . 43
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 43
Germany Risk/Reward Index .. 47
Rewards ... 47
Risks 48
Market Overview ... 49
Industry Trends And Developments 50
Epidemiology 50
Healthcare Sector .. 51
Health Insurance ... 52
Healthcare Sector Reforms .. 52
Table: Healthcare Resources (Germany 2009-2014) 54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Germany 2009-2014) . 54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Germany 2009-2014) . 55
Research and Development 55
Biotechnology Sector .. 59
Clinical Trials ... 60
Regulatory Development .. 62
Intellectual Property Regime 63
Pricing Regime .. 65
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market . 66
Reimbursement Regime ... 68
Parallel Imports . 71
Competitive Landscape 73
Wholesale Sector ... 75
Retail Sector . 75
Company Profile 76
Pfizer 76
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 79
Bayer Health Care ... 81
Sanofi 85
Merck KGaA .. 88
Merck and Co 92
Boehringer Ingelheim ... 94
Grünenthal . 98
STADA Arzneimittel ... 100
Demographic Forecast ... 104
Demographic Outlook 104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025) . 105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025) . 105
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025) 106
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025) . 106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025) 107
Glossary ... 109
Methodology 111
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 111
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model ... 111
Notes On Methodology .. 112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 113
Index Overview 114
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 114
Indicator Weightings 115

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