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Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 40 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Saudi Arabia will increasingly be dependent on grains imports, as the country has decided tophase out domestic grains production in a bid to preserve the country's water supply. The government hasnot abandoned its strategy of self-sufficiency in poultry and has been ramping up incentives to expandproduction capacity. This strategy has paid off, as the three major producers in the sector have all startedheavy investment initiatives. We believe Saudi Arabia will find sufficient grains supply from the Black Searegion and the EU to supply its meat and food processing industry in the coming years. However, thecountry will remain highly vulnerable to volatile grains and feed prices. Recent spikes in feed prices haveturned us more cautious on margins for dairy and livestock producers in the country, especially those thatimport inputs from abroad.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -92.9% to 30,000 tonnes. Wheat production will be almostcompletely phased out in the coming years and Saudi Arabia will become entirely dependent on importsfor its grain needs.

- Beef consumption growth to 2020: 15.7% to 233,000 tonnes. Beef consumption will not grow as fastas poultry in the coming years, as beef meat remains more expensive than chicken. However, theexpansion in GDP per capita and population will support a moderate increase in beef demand.

- Poultry production growth to 2020: 35.7% to 950,000 tonnes. This spectacular growth will mainlycome from the effects of three major poultry farms' (al-Watania, al-Fakieh and Almarai) capacityexpansion, along with continuous government support.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD14.4bn in 2016, up 2.2% compared with the expected2015 level; forecast to increase by 6.0% on average per year between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5% y-o-y, down from 3.4% expected in 2015, projected to average 2.3% from2016 to 2020.

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 3.5% average, up from 2.2% expected in 2015, projected to average3.9% from 2016 to 2020.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Saudi Arabia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 17
Livestock Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Saudi Arabia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: Saudi Arabia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 26
Commodities Price Analysis 27
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 27
Downstream Analysis 29
Food 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 30
Table: Food Sales (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) 31
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 33
Demographic Forecast 34
Demographic Outlook 34
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 35
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 35
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 36
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 36
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 37
Methodology 39
Industry Forecast Methodology 39
Sector-Specific Methodology 40

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