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Iran Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: As the majority of international sanctions have been lifted faster than expected and new historicdata has been released, we have upwardly revised our construction industry growth forecast for Iran in2016 from 3.2% to 4.5%. The lifting of sanctions is resulting in the gradual return of private investment aswell as improving Iran's access to funding for projects. As such, we expect the country's risk profile -particularly in the financing stage of the project life cycle - to continue to improve.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast 4.5% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2016 and an average of 6.1% overthe next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions and strong demand for infrastructure.

- Persistently low oil prices - our Oil & Gas Team forecasts Brent to average USD46.5/bbl in 2016 - willreduce government revenue, limiting public spending in infrastructure.

- As we expected, the lifting of sanctions is already having a positive impact on Iran's capability to financeinfrastructure projects. Reflecting the reduced risk in the financing stage, Iran now scores 34 out of 100 inthe Financing Risk pillar of our Project Risk Index (PRI), from a previous score of 18.8.

- Although we anticipate investment opportunities across all sectors, railway projects will attractconsiderable interest, as evidenced by the announcements that the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways(RAI) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with German Siemens for cooperation in therail sector. The MoU includes projects such as Tehran-Mashhad railroad electrification and theconstruction of Tehran-Isfahan high-speed railway. In addition, state-owned Russian Railways (RZD)signed a USD1.28bn contract with RAI to electrify a 495km railway line. The contract is funded by aRussian government credit allocation to the government of Iran.

- Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the constructionindustry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs willcontinue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

- Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to presentchallenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses and corruption.

Table Of Contents

Iran Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2025) 6
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Iran - Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure 9
Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure 9
Latest Updates 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2015-2025) 10
Structural Trends 10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 18
Table: Key Transport Infrastructure Projects 27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 28
Table: Key Projects: Energy and Utilities 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 36
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 41
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 42
MENA Infrastructure RRI: Oil Prices And Security Remain Key Risks 43
Table: MENA RRI 49
Market Overview 50
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: Iran EQS Data 52
Company Profile 53
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co (Mapna) 53
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sector-Specific Methodology 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

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