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Positive sentiments for the biotech sector have prevailed in the last two to three years, and we expect this trend to continue for the next year too. Our optimism is based on the continuity in the flow of innovative products from their pipeline, implementation of strategic decisions to improve cost efficiency, strengthen therapeutic leadership, and hedge against generic threats – which all lend stability to the business model of the company. Focus and interest in Orphan diseases remains and Alexion kept everyone guessing on the possible acquisition. BMRN, Alexion are likely candidates to be acquired in this space.

In the next five years the distinction between some mature biotech companies and large global pharma may become blurred esp. if there is consolidation within the sector. AMGN was the first amongst the peers to declare a dividend and this has raised the bar/expectations from others too. First mAb Biosimilar (Hospira’s infliximab – Inflectra) was approved in EU and the pipeline, competition intensifies despite no firm regulatory pathway is defined in US.The detailed 72 pages report contains the detailed discussion of the key attributes of leading biotech companies’ Acorda, Alexion, Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Gilead, Regeneron and Vertex.

Table Of Contents

Global Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Outlook 2014: Mature Biotech
Table of Contents

Macro Analysis
• Performance of the Mature Biotech companies recommended by MP Advisors in 2012 -report card is very impressive and we expect the positive sentiments to prevail in 2013 and beyond
• Valuation Multiples and Fundamentals- Drivers of Growth.
• MP Advisors' Proprietary Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation and Top Picks for 2013
• Drug Approvals 2012-15
• Key Milestones During 2013/14
• Impact on revenue 2012-2017 from Patent Expiry and Strategies deployed to meet the challenges.
• Pipeline of Biosimilar mAbs
• Joint Ventures between innovators and biosimilar players
• Merger and Acquisitions Forecast- 2013-2020

In-depth Company Analysis
1. Acorda (ACOR)
1.1. Continuing Growth in AMPYRA's Sales
1.2. Ex. US Sales - Risk Factored in the Current Price
1.3. Pipeline Beyond AMPYRA - AC105, diazepam
1.4. Takeover target
1.5. Sum of the parts valuation
1.6. Background

2. Alexion (ALXN)
2.1. Product Pipeline - Future Potential
2.2. Soliris in PNH and aHUS: Growth to Continue
2.3. Soliris beyond PNH and aHUS
2.4. Diversifying Beyond Soliris - Asfotase alfa, ALXN1102/ALXN1103, ALXN1007
2.5. Sum of the parts valuation

3. Amgen (AMGN)
3.1. Investment Drivers
3.2. Pipeline Products - Promising Progress, AMG145, Romosozumab
3.3. Enriched Pipeline through acquisitions or collaborations - Blinatumomab, Talimogene laherparepvec, Omecamtiv mecarbil
3.4. Divest Pipeline Products Smartly
3.5. Tapping Emerging markets and other Geographical Expansion
3.6. Strategy for Biosimilars onslaught
3.7. Sum of the parts valuation
3.8. AHA '12 UPDATE: AMG 145 - HYPERLIPIDEMIA
3.9. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: ANTI-PCSK9 MAB - HYPERLIPIDEMIA
4. Biogen Idec (BIIB)
4.1. Catalysts in the Next 6-8 Months - BG-12, recombinant long-lasting Factor VIII (rFVIIFc) and IX (rFIXFc), Obinutuzumab
4.2. March of Marketed Products Continues
4.3. Sum of the parts valuation
4.4. OBINUTUZUMAB: PHIII TRIALS
4.5. RITUXIMAB BIOSIMILAR PIPELINE
4.6. Other CNS drugs in the Pipeline
4.7. Biosimilar Development

5. Celgene (CELG)
5.1. Upcoming Key Milestones - Pomalidomide, Apremilast, ABRAXANE
5.2. Negative - Downside risk but not before 2019
5.3. Sum of the parts valuation
5.4. PROTEASOME INHIBITOR - CLINICAL DATA COMPARISON: R/R MM

6. Gilead (GILD)
6.1. Advancements in the Anti-viral space - HIV and HCV
6.2. Beyond Anti-Virals -
6.3. Key Catalysts - Sofosubivir, QUAD Pill, Elvitegravir
6.4. Competition from dolutegravir
6.5. Pipeline beyond anti-virals - Ranexa, GS-1101 (PI3K inhibitor)
6.6. Sum of the parts valuation
6.7. KEY PRODUCTS IN PIPELINE: IFN-FREE COMBINATION
6.8. DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

7. Grifols (GRF)
7.1. Basis of OP recommendation
7.2. IVIG' AD Opportunity - A Wild Card but Not a Risk to its Core Business
7.3. Capacity Matters in Plasma Business -
7.4. Weakness
7.5. BACKGROUND - BioScience Division, Diagnostic, Hospital
7.6. NEW PROTEINS IN DEVELOPMENT
7.7. FDA APPROVED PRODUCTS - FRACTIONATED PLASMA PRODUCTS

8. Onyx (ONXX)
8.1. Investments drivers - Kyprolis, Oprozomab, Nexavar label expansion
8.2. Sum of the parts valuation
8.3. KYPROLIS: ASH '12 UPDATE

9. Regeneron (REGN)
9.1. Investments drivers
9.2. Upcoming Catalysts - Marketed Products (Eylea, ZALTRAP)
9.3. Upside from Ex-Trap Late -stage Pipeline (REGN727/SAR236553, Sarilumab, REGN475)
9.4. Sum of the parts valuation
9.5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: ANTI-PCSK9 MAB - HYPERLIPIDEMIA
9.6. Commercializing strategy
9.7. Manufacturing and Global Supply Chain:
9.8. VASCEPA vs. LOVAZA and EPANOVA
9.9. CLINICAL DATA COMPARISON IN HYPERTRIGLYCERIDEMIA - VASCEPA vs. LOVAZA and EPANOVA


10. Vertex (VRTX)
10.1. INCIVEK, KALYDECO Label Expansion - Little to Bet On,
10.2. Development Plans for IFN-free Combination
10.3. Beyond HCV and CF - VX-509m VX-787, VX-765
10.4. Sum of the parts valuation
10.5. KEY PIPELINE PRODUCTS: IFN-FREE COMBINATION
10.6. DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
10.7. DATA FROM IFN-FREE COMBINATIONS

Industry Tables
• Valuation Snapshots
• Expected Drug Clinical Milestones
• MB sector Selected MandA Activities
• Marketed Products' Potential
• Pipeline Potential Thru 2017
• Patent Expiry - Impact On The Sector

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