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Every Major OEM Group to Commercialize Semi- and Highly-automated Vehicles by 2020

Key Findings

OEMs* are still evaluating their launch strategies while keeping safety and product-liability issues in mind; though technologically advanced, there is no first-to-market fight to go completely driverless.

Calculative Approach
OEMs not fighting to take the “firstto-market” tag
Cautious approach amidst liability and safety issues

Feature-focused Development
Focus on urban convenience aided by services like Automated Park Assist (APA) and traffic jam assist.
Focus on human machine interface (HMI) and connected services
Prime focus on semi-automated cars, sensor suite to be the major technology enabler

Market Snapshot
BMW and Mercedes-Benz to commercialize semi-automated driving in 2014, while massmarket OEMs may take until 2017
Continental, Bosch, and Valeo to be the best-fit suppliers
Non-traditional participants (e.g., Google) to be key enablers and potential disruptors as well

Factory-fitted vs. Retrofits
Clear strategy by OEMs to offer automated driving functionality as factory-fitted equipment
Google’s strategy: offer retro-fit equipment enabling automated driving across various vehicle segments

Automated Driving -> Extended Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)?
OEMs specifically in Europe projecting automated driving as natural extension of ADAS
Cost justification through monetization from automated driving packaging
Positioned as premium/extended ADAS package

Approaches towards Automated Driving

Traditional OEM
The automotive industry looks to eliminate human error by employing vehicle automation that can act on behalf of the driver.
Automated driving converts vehicles into a rich data source that OEMs will seek to leverage. This includes maintenance management, telematics, and in the future, vehicle information may also be shared with “Big Data” traffic services. The first factory-fitted automation features include traffic-jam assist and automated park assist (APA), typically semi-automated in nature.

Google Project
The average American car user spends roughly 10 hours a week in driving activity. Google wishes to confine the car user in a connected environment during this time and capitalize this time duration. By automating the vehicle, Google can engage commuters in more online activity, enabling personalized advertising and location based services (LBS). Google wishes to make their fully-automated system a street-legal retrofit, approved under the “construction and use” category to target vehicles-inoperation.

Traditional OEMs, unlike Google, are more inclined towards highly rather than fully-automated driving. OEMs do not feel the rush to be the first in the market with driverless cars due to legislative and liability issues. Liability issues need to be addressed with clarity on scope & responsibility-matrix.

Table Of Contents

Strategic Analysis of the European and North American Market for Automated Driving
Executive Summary
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
Introduction, Market Overview, and Key Trends
NHTSA Automated Driving Definitions
Classification and Definition of Automated Driving
Benefits of Vehicle Automation
Industry Challenges
Macro-level Outlook of Automated Driving—Application Convergence
Applications Required for Various Levels of Vehicle Automation
Convergence of ADAS and Connectivity
OEM Comparative Analysis—Automated Driving Cost and Packaging
Other Applications for Automated Driving Vehicles
Other On-highway Applications for Automated Driving Vehicles
Off-highway Applications for Autonomous Driving Vehicles
Defence Applications for Autonomous Driving Vehicles
Implications of Human Machine Interface and Control of Automated Vehicles
Key Human Factors Questions
System Characteristics and HMI Development
Information Overload and Driver Involvement in Automated Driving
Human Factors in Fully-automated Vehicles
Sensors and Applications Roadmap
The Automated Vehicle EE Architecture Roadmap
Design, Testing, and Validation of Automated Cars
Meeting the Design Challenges of Automated Vehicles
Cyber Security and Data Encryption
Requirements for the Design Process of Automated Vehicles
Market Potential Analysis for Automated Driving
OEM Profiles—Vehicle Automation Snapshot
Audi
BMW
General Motors
Mercedes-Benz
Volkswagen
Volvo
Key Innovations from Suppliers Active in Automated Driving
Conclusions and Future Outlook
Legal Disclaimer
Appendix

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