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Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Taiwan's refining capacity will see a net reduction of 70,000b/d, with the closure of theKaohsiung refinery and expansion of the Dalin refinery. Domestic production will be ramped up to reducethe island's reliance on refined fuels imports. Taiwan's LNG imports will increase as its installed gas-firedgeneration capacity is expanding. Additional regasification capacity and LNG supplies post-2020 will beneeded to support higher gas consumption.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- The 220,000b/d Kaohsiung refinery closed in January 2016 while the 300,000b/d Dalin refinery will beexpanded by 150,000b/d by June 2017. As a result, Taiwan's refining capacity will see a net reduction of70,000b/d to 1.24mn b/d.

- We forecast Taiwan's refined fuels production to fall by 5.0% to 814,200b/d in 2016, and rebound at anaverage rate of 1.0 per annum thereafter to 944,100b/d by 2025 as the island ramps up domesticproduction to reduce its reliance on refined fuels imports.

- Coupled with our forecast for a 3.7% contraction in refined fuels consumption from 2016 to 2025,Taiwan will swing from a net importer of refined products towards the tail-end of our forecast period.

- Taiwan's net imports of crude oil will follow a similar trend with refinery production. It will rise from812,500b/d in 2016 to 942,400b/d in 2025.

- Taiwan's LNG imports are set to increase as its installed gas-fired generation capacity is expanding.

- Taichung LNG import terminal will be expanded by from 3.0mn tonnes per annum to 5.0mn tpa by2018. Additional regasification capacity and LNG supplies post-2020 will be needed to support thepresident-elect Tsai Ing-wen's commitment to phasing out nuclear by 2025.

Table Of Contents

Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 13
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 13
Upstream Production - Gas 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 15
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 15
Refining 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Taiwan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Taiwan 2020-2025) 22
Gas Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2020-2025) 25
Trade - Oil 26
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2020) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 29
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 36
Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 39
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 41
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream Index - Overview 43
Upstream Index - Rewards 43
Taiwan Upstream Index - Risks 43
Downstream Index - Overview 44
Market Overview 45
Taiwan Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Fiscal Regime 46
Table: Taiwan - Key Tax Rates 46
Licensing Regime 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 48
Oil Refineries 48
Table: Operational Refineries In Taiwan 48
Service Stations 48
Oil Storage 48
LNG Terminals 49
Table: LNG Terminals In Taiwan 49
Gas Pipelines 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Competitive Landscape Summary 50
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil and Gas Sector 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 51
Table: Key Downstream Players 51
Company Profile 52
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) 52
Latest Updates 52
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Taiwan 54
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Taiwan 54
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 54
Regional Overview 55
Asia Regional Overview 55
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Source 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Table: Weighting 70

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