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  5. > Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

  • March 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 114 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We have scaled back our oil production forecasts for Congo-Brazzaville in 2015, but still hold to the view the country provides strong upside risk to production from small-scale shallow water fields. We now expect the gradual introduction of crude from the new shallow water Nene Marine field will be slower than first expected and as a result have scaled back our 2015 crude production forecasts to 288,220b/d from earlier estimates of 355,800b/d. Nevertheless, we believe Congo-Brazzaville has an opportunity to attract scarce exploration and capex funds in a low price environment as companies scale back on frontier exploration and concentrate on less risky exploration efforts. Therefore risks to our production forecasts increasingly lie to the upside.

Shallow water Elephant coming onstream. Eni has started producing crude from the Nene Marine field, just 16 months after its discovery and eight months after getting regulatory approval. However, production is ramping up slowly and in stages, causing BMI to scale back our overall production estimates for Congo- Brazzaville in 2015. We now forecast 2015 production to come in at 288,220b/d, down from original projects of 350,000b/d. Just 17 km offshore and in water depths of 28 meters, the Neme Marine field is expected to only produce 10% of its potential of 140,000b/d in 2015 before ramping up to full production in 2016. Operator Eni puts reserves from the field at 1.5 bn bbl.

Table Of Contents

Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 12
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Congo Brazzaville Key Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Table: Oil Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 17
Table: Oil Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Table: Gas Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 20
Table: Gas Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 20
Refining 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 23
Refined Fuel Consumption 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 26
Gas Consumption 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 28
Trade - Oil 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook 38
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles 39
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential 40
Falling Oil Price Trims Rewards 40
An Underwhelming Downstream 41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Republic Of Congo - Risk/Reward Index 42
Congo Upstream Index - Rewards 42
Congo Upstream Index - Risks 43
Congo Downstream Index - Rewards 43
Congo Downstream Index - Risks 44
Market Overview 45
Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview 45
Licensing and Regulation 47
Licensing Rounds 48
International Energy Relations 48
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Refineries In Congo 50
LNG 51
Service Stations 51
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Oil Pipelines 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Competitive Landscape Summary 53
Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo's Energy Sector 54
Table: Key Upstream Players 54
Table: Key Downstream Players 54
Company Profile 55
Total Congo 55
Eni 60
Other Summaries 65
Regional Overview 69
Africa Oil and Gas Regional Overview 69
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive 69
Unconventionals: A New Frontier 72
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil 74
High-Risk Continent 75
Downstream Blues 77
Global Industry Overview 80
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil and Gas 80
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage 85
Appendix 87
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 88
Africa - Regional Appendix 89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 94
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 94
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 95
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 96
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 97
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 97
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 98
Congo Brazzaville - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts 99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 99
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 99
Congo Brazzaville- Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts 100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2018) 105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Congo-Brazzaville 2019-2024) 106
Glossary 107
Table: Glossary Of Terms 107
Methodology 109
Industry Forecast Methodology 109
Source 111
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 111
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 113
Table: Weighting 114

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