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  5. > Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a negative outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector in 2016 owing to a range ofconcerns. All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals inUkraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstablepolitical and economic situation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period.Russia's ban on imports from Ukraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, asRussia represents one of Ukraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currencydepreciation will limit imports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, Ukrainian farmers willfail to benefit from the export opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions andlack of resources to scale up production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production will decline by 17.4% in 2016 to reach a total value of 23.5mn tonnes.

- We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 22.2% to reach 21.0mn tonnes.

- The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 due to macroeconomic unsoundness.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ukraine - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 15
Dairy Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Ukraine - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Ukraine - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) 25
Commodity Price Analysis 26
Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Europe Machinery Outlook 28
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 32
Europe GM Outlook 34
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 40
Downstream Analysis 47
Food 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 48
Table: Food Sales (Ukraine 2013-2020) 50
Regional Overview 52
Europe Regional Overview 52
Competitive Landscape 57
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 57
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64

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