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We continue to expect the Romanian economy to post modest growth in the coming months, on the back of
improving private consumption and the recovering agricultural sector, which had suffered due to poor
weather conditions. Nevertheless, private consumption will not grow dramatically, as the sluggish external
environment continues to weigh on the economy, and inflation remains elevated. We also note that VAT in
Romania stands at 24%, which is among the highest globally. That said, unemployment has recovered since
mid-2012, with wage increases also benefitting discretionary spending patterns. Generally speaking, we are
still positive about the Romanian consumer story in the long term, certainly on a regional level, given the
size of its population and also the relative immaturity of its food and drinks markets.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
• 2013 per capita food consumption growth = +4.83% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) to 2017= +5.42%.
• 2013 alcoholic drinks sales growth = +5.00% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017= +5.51%.
• 2013 soft drinks sales growth = +5.11% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017= +6.95%.
• 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth = +8.73% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017= +10.53%.
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