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Poland Retail Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Polish GDP contracted by 0.1% y-o-y in Q116, its first contraction since 2012. Despite this, weremain sanguine towards the Polish economy and forecast real GDP growth of 3.7%in 2016 and 3.5% in2017. This will support rising household incomes, which in turn will benefit the country's retail sector.Maintenance of loose monetary policy in 2016 will support consumer spending, but rising inflation in 2017on the back of rising commodity prices and base effects wearing off is likely to temper the rate of growthhousehold spending.

Key Views And Developments

- We expect total household spending to amount to USD263bn in 2016, down by 2.5%, mostly due to theappreciated US dollar. In zloty terms, we expect a rise of 4.4% over the year.

- Housing and utilities will account for 24.3% of total spending in 2016, reflecting the dominance ofessential spending within the Polish household spending budget.

- The percentage of households in the crucial USD10,000+ net income bracket is expected to reach 62.7%in 2016, representing 8.6mn households.

Table Of Contents

Poland Retail Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP (Poland 2013-2020) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 17
Retail Sub-Sector Forecast 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Food, Drink And Tobacco 21
Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 21
Clothing And Footwear 22
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2013-2020) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2013-2020) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Total Population (Poland 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Children (Poland 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children (Poland 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: 21 Years Plus (Poland 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Urban/Rural (Poland 2013-2020) 35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316 36
Poland Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Department Stores 40
Shopping Centres 41
Clothing And Footwear 41
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement 42
Electronics 43
Pharmacies And Drug Stores 43
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Clothing And Footwear 45
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 45
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement 46
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers 46
Electronics 46
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 46
Department Stores 47
Table: Selected Department Stores 47
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces 47
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers And Online Marketplaces 47
Drug Stores And Pharmacies 48
Table: Selected Drug Stores And Pharmacies 48
Glossary 49
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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