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Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 105 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowgroundpotential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PDVSA. We expect Venezuelawill underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive politicalinterference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financialsituation of PDVSA. Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growthprospects as PDVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capexfunds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- Our crude production forecast for 2016 was downgraded this quarter to a contraction of 5.0% y-o-y amidsustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela'supstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.

- President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first timein two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has longbeen a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whosemembers believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reformunderscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscalregime as oil prices remain at historic lows.

- Venezuela's downstream sector continues to suffer from a lack of maintenance and underinvestment. Thiswas illustrated by the blackout at the country's two largest refineries in October 2015, and the 50%utilisation rate reported at the 955,000b/d Paraguana Complex in March 2016.

- Exports of crude and refined products will decline as upstream activity wanes. Low fuel prices will propup domestic demand and weigh on available export quantities over the remainder of our 10-year forecastperiod. Moreover, imports of newly liberalised US crude will increase over the next year, given strongdemand for light crude for blending purposes.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends: 15
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 24
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 24
Upstream Production - Gas 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 28
Refining 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 36
Gas Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Oil 39
Crude Oil 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020) 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 42
Refined Products 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 48
Industry Risk Reward Index 49
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 49
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 50
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 51
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 52
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 54
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index 57
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview 57
Downstream Index - Overview 58
Market Overview 59
Venezuela Energy Market Overview 59
Overview 59
State Role 59
Licensing And Regulation 60
Government Policy 60
International Energy Relations 61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 65
Oil Refineries 65
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela 66
Oil Pipelines 69
LNG Terminals 69
Gas Pipelines 70
Competitive Landscape 72
Competitive Landscape Summary 72
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil and Gas Sector 74
Table: Key Upstream Players 74
Table: Key Downstream Player 75
Company Profile 76
PDVSA 76
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 77
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 77
Chevron 79
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 80
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 80
Repsol Venezuela 82
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 83
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 83
Total Venezuela 85
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 86
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 86
Regional Overview 87
Latin America Overview 87
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025 96
Glossary 98
Table: Glossary Of Terms 98
Methodology 100
Industry Forecast Methodology 100
Source 102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 102
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 104
Table: Weighting 105

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