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Vercirnon (Crohn’s Disease) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

The Crohn’s disease (CD) market is currently very dynamic, with novel biologic therapies on the horizon. These compounds will challenge the current biologics in an attempt to dislodge the stronghold of the TNF inhibitors, as they aim to tap into the lucrative portion of the CD therapeutics market. If their promising safety and efficacy profiles translate to clinical practice once they enter the market, their launch will be to the detriment of the existing market leaders, Remicade (infliximab) and Humira (adalimumab).The loss of patent protection of the anti-TNF marketed brands will allow for the emergence of biosimilars, such as Hospira’s Inflectra (infliximab) a Remicade biosimilar. Focusing on country dynamics, Canada and the emerging markets of China and India will also play a key role in driving growth in the long term, with each market forecast to post positive Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) from 2012 to 2022, primarily due to the anticipated strong uptake of Remicade over the forecast period.

ChemoCentryx is developing vercirnon (formerly known as GSK 1605786 and Traficet-EN) for the treatment of CD. In January 2010, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and ChemoCentryx announced that GSK had exercised its option to obtain an exclusive license for the further development and worldwide commercialization of Traficet-EN. Vercirnon is an orally-bioavailable, small-molecule CCR9 chemokine receptor antagonist that shows the potential to control the inflammatory response underlying IBD.

Scope

- Overview of Crohn’s disease (CD), including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on Vercirnon including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for Vercirnon for the top seven countries from 2012 to 2022.
- Sales information covered for the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Canada

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Crohn’s disease
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of Vercirnon performance
- Obtain sales forecast for Vercirnon from 2012-2022 in top seven countries (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Canada)

Table Of Contents

Vercirnon (Crohn’s Disease) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Catalyst 9
2.2 Related Reports 10
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 11
3 Disease Overview 12
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 12
3.1.1 Etiology 12
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 12
3.2 Symptoms 16
3.3 Prognosis 17
3.4 Quality of Life 17
4 Disease Management 18
4.1 Treatment Overview 19
5 Competitive Assessment 24
5.1 Overview 24
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 25
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 27
6.1 Overview 27
6.2 Physicians Desire Biomarkers That Will Allow a Personalized Treatment Approach 28
6.3 More Therapies for Anti-TNF-Refractory Patients 29
6.4 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 30
6.5 Targeted Therapies 31
6.6 Predictive Tools for Early Diagnosis and Treatment 32
7 Pipeline Assessment 33
7.1 Overview 33
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 33
8 Vercirnon (formerly GSK1605786) 36
8.1 Overview 36
8.2 Efficacy 37
8.3 Safety 39
8.4 Dosing and Formulation 39
8.5 Potential Clinical Positioning 40
8.6 Potential Commercial Positioning 40
8.7 Pricing and Reimbursement 41
8.8 SWOT Analysis 42
8.9 Forecast 42
9 Appendix 44
9.1 Bibliography 44
9.2 Abbreviations 48
9.3 Methodology 50
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 50
9.4.1 Diagnosed CD Patients 50
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 51
9.4.3 General Pricing Assumptions 51
9.4.4 Generic Erosion 52
9.4.5 Pricing of Pipeline agents 53
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in This Study 53
9.6 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 55
9.7 About the Authors 56
9.7.1 Author/Reviewer 56
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 56
9.8 About GlobalData 57
9.9 Disclaimer 57

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms of CD 16
Table 2: Treatment Guidelines for CD 20
Table 3: Most Commonly Prescribed Drugs for CD in the Global Markets by Disease Severity, 2013 22
Table 4: Leading Branded Drugs Used to Treat CD 26
Table 5: Overall Unmet Needs in CD - Current Level of Attainment 28
Table 6: Clinical Unmet Needs in CD - Gap Analysis, 2013 31
Table 7: Promising Drugs in Clinical Development for CD - Pipeline Phase, 2013 34
Table 8: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for CD, 2013 35
Table 9: Product Profile - Vercirnon 37
Table 10: Vercirnon SWOT Analysis, 2013 42
Table 11: Global Sales Forecasts ($) for Vercirnon, 2012-2022 43
Table 12: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 55

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Mucosa of the Bowel in a Healthy Individual (Left) and a Patient With CD (Right) 13
Figure 2: Potential Biologic Drug Targets for CD 15
Figure 3: Patient Care Path for CD 21
Figure 4: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in CD, 2012-2022 34

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