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Asia - Telecom Forecasts

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 61 pages

Summary

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As Asia moves from voice to data, subscriber growth eases
Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.

Malaysia - forecast - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2013 | 3.7 | 12.6% | 3.7 | 12.6%
2014 (actual) | 3.6 | 12.1% | 3.6 | 12.1%
2015 | 3.4 | 11.3% | 3.9 | 13.6%
2017 | 3.2 | 10.6% | 4.1 | 13.6%
2020 | 2.9 | 8.8% | 4.4 | 13.5%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia - forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1
(million) | Penetration | Subscribers1 (million) | Penetration
2013 | 2.9 | 10% | 2.9 | 10%
2014 (actual) | 3.1 | 10% | 3.1 | 10%
2015 | 3.2 | 10% | 3.2 | 10%
2017 | 3.6 | 11% | 4.0 | 12%
2020 | 4.2 | 12% | 5.5 | 16%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Note: 1includes only fixed broadband subscribers

Malaysia - forecast - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2013 | 43.0 | 145% | 43.0 | 145%
2014 (actual) | 44.9 | 149% | 44.9 | 149%
2015 | 45.0 | 150% | 46.0 | 151%
2017 | 45.5 | 150% | 50.0 | 154%
2020 | 50.0 | 152% | 55.0 | 166%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

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