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Asia - Telecom Forecasts

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 61 pages

As Asia moves from voice to data, subscriber growth eases
Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.

Malaysia - forecast - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2013 | 3.7 | 12.6% | 3.7 | 12.6%
2014 (actual) | 3.6 | 12.1% | 3.6 | 12.1%
2015 | 3.4 | 11.3% | 3.9 | 13.6%
2017 | 3.2 | 10.6% | 4.1 | 13.6%
2020 | 2.9 | 8.8% | 4.4 | 13.5%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia - forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1
(million) | Penetration | Subscribers1 (million) | Penetration
2013 | 2.9 | 10% | 2.9 | 10%
2014 (actual) | 3.1 | 10% | 3.1 | 10%
2015 | 3.2 | 10% | 3.2 | 10%
2017 | 3.6 | 11% | 4.0 | 12%
2020 | 4.2 | 12% | 5.5 | 16%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Note: 1includes only fixed broadband subscribers

Malaysia - forecast - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2013 | 43.0 | 145% | 43.0 | 145%
2014 (actual) | 44.9 | 149% | 44.9 | 149%
2015 | 45.0 | 150% | 46.0 | 151%
2017 | 45.5 | 150% | 50.0 | 154%
2020 | 50.0 | 152% | 55.0 | 166%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Table Of Contents

Asia - Telecom Forecasts
1. Background notes relevant to our market forecasts
2. Afghanistan
2.1 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
2.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015;2017; 2020
2.3 Forecasts mobile broadband subscribers 2015;2017; 2020
3. Azerbaijan
3.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
3.2 Forecasts fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
3.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2017; 2020
4. Bangladesh
4.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2017; 2020
4.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2017; 2020
4.2.1 Scenario forecasts fixed broadband subscribers
4.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2017; 2020
4.3.1 Scenario forecasts
5. Cambodia
5.1 Forecasts Broadband services 2015; 2020
5.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
6. China
6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2013-2018
6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers 2017 - 2020
6.3 Forecast: Mobile Internet subscribers 2015-2020
7. Georgia
7.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
7.2 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
7.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
8. Hong Kong
8.1 Forecasts Fixed broadband subscribers 2016; 2020
8.2 Forecast total mobile and 3G/LTE subscribers 2016; 2020
9. India
9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
9.2 Forecasts- internet services 2015; 2017: 2020
9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services 2015; 2017; 2020
10. Indonesia
10.1 Forecasts fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts mobile market: 2015; 2020
11. Japan
11.1 Forecasts broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
11.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2018-2020
12. Kazakhstan
12.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
13. Kyrgyzstan
13.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
14. Laos
14.1 Forecasts fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts internet services - 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Macau
15.1 Forecasts fibre broadband subscribers 2016; 2020
16. Malaysia
16.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
16.2 Forecasts Fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
16.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2017; 2020
17. Nepal
17.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2017; 2020
17.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2017; 2020
17.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2017; 2020
18. Pakistan
18.1 Forecasts fixed line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
18.2 Forecasts Internet market 2015; 2017; 2020
18.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
19. Philippines
19.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
20. South Korea
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2013 - 2015; 2018
20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers 2013 - 2015; 2019
20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2014- 2016; 2019
21. Sri Lanka
21.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2017; 2020
21.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2017; 2020
21.3 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2017; 2020
22. Taiwan
22.1 Forecasts FTTH subscribers 2016; 2018; 2022
22.1.1 Scenario 1 higher broadband subscriber growth
22.1.2 Scenario 2 lower broadband subscriber growth
22.2 Forecast LTE mobile subscribers 2015 (actual); 2017, 2021
23. Thailand
23.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
24. Uzbekistan
24.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
24.2 Forecasts fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
24.3 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
25. Vietnam
25.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
25.2 Forecasts fixed broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 1 Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 2 Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 3 Afghanistan - Forecast mobile broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 4 Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 5 Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 6 Azerbaijan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 7 Bangladesh - Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 8 Bangladesh - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 9 Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 10 Cambodia - Forecast fixed broadband subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 11 Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 12 China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 13 China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 14 China - Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration higher band: 2017; 2020
Table 15 China - Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration lower band: 2017; 2020
Table 16 China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers lower band forecast 2015; 2020
Table 17 China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers higher band forecast 2015; 2020
Table 18 Georgia - Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 19 Georgia - Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 20 Georgia - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 21 Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2016; 2020
Table 22 Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2016; 2020
Table 23 Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2016; 2020
Table 24 Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2016; 2020
Table 25 India - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 26 India - Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 27 India - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 28 Indonesia - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 29 Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 30 Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 31 Japan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2018; 2020
Table 32 Japan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration 2018; 2020
Table 33 Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 34 Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 35 Laos - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 36 Laos - Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 37 Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 38 Macau - Scenario 1 Higher fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table 39 Macau - Scenario 2 Lower fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table 40 Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 41 Malaysia - Forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 42 Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 43 Nepal - Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 44 Nepal - Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 45 Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 46 Pakistan - Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 47 Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 48 Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 49 Philippines - Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 50 Philippines - Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 51 Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 52 South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table 53 South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table 54 South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table 55 South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table 56 South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2014 - 2016; 2019
Table 57 South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2014 - 2016; 2019
Table 58 Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 59 Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 60 Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 61 Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table 62 Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table 63 Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: 2017; 2021
Table 64 Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: 2017; 2021
Table 65 Thailand - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 66 Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration 2015; 2020
Table 67 Thailand - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 68 Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 69 Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 70 Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 71 Vietnam - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 72 Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2017; 2020

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