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EpiCast Report: Ankylosing Spondylitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

Summary

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) - a systemic, chronic, and progressive inflammatory arthritis, is the prototype of a family of related disorders known as seronegative spondyloarthritis (SpA) and one of the most common rheumatic diseases across the globe. AS primarily affects the spine and sacroiliac (SI) joints and progresses into severe inflammation that fuses the spine, leading to permanent painful stiffness of the back. AS that occurs before any structural changes in the spine is referred to as non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) which is the early stage of AS. Some of non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis progress to AS and some do not.

GlobalData’s epidemiological analysis provides a country-specific forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AS in the 7MM during 2014-2024. GlobalData epidemiologists made sure all the country-specific studies report diagnosed prevalent cases of AS, diagnosed prevalent cases of nr-axSpA, and HLA-B27 seropositivity cases in diagnosed AS cases based on medical chart review by a physician or data extracted from national registries. GlobalData epidemiologists provide a forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AS and nr-axSpA using two different approaches: 1) forecasting the diagnosed prevalent cases of AS and nr-axSpAusing data obtained from peer reviewed journal articles and 2) forecasting the diagnosed prevalent cases of AS and nr-axSpA by applying a trend based on data obtained from primary research to the diagnosed prevalent cases calculated using the base scenario. The forecast methodology was consistent across all the 10MM to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

The diagnosed prevalent cases of AS in the 7MM in the base scenario increased from 1,045,903 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2014 to 1,067,905 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2024, with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.21%. The forecast in the alternate scenario based on primary research data showed that there will be a substantial increase in the diagnosed prevalent cases of AS in the 7MM from 1,279,010 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2014 to 2,230,825 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2024, at an AGR of 7.44%. The forecast methodology was consistent across all the 10MM to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

Scope

- The Ankylosing Spondylitis EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed prevalent cases of ankylosing spondylitis segmented by sex, age (in ten-year increments beginning at 15 years and ending at =65 years), and diagnosed prevalent cases of non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis, and diagnosed prevalent cases of AS segmented by HLA-B27 seropositivity status in these markets.
- The ankylosing spondylitis epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to buy

The Ankylosing Spondylitis EpiCast series will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global ankylosing spondylitis market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global ankylosing spondylitis market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for ankylosing spondylitis therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Ankylosing Spondylitis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 12
3.3 Global Trends 13
3.3.1 US 16
3.3.2 5EU 16
3.3.3 Japan 17
3.4 Forecast Methodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of AS 20
3.4.2 Sources used for Diagnosed Prevalence of Nr-axSpA 22
3.4.3 Sources Used for the Prevalence of HLA-B27 Seropositivity in Diagnosed AS 23
3.4.4 Sources Not Used 25
3.4.5 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS - Base Scenario 26
3.4.6 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA - Base Scenario 28
3.4.7 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, HLA-B27 Seropositivity in Diagnosed AS 29
3.4.8 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS - Alternative Scenario 30
3.4.9 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSp - Alternative Scenario 30
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AS (2014-2024) - Base Scenario 31
3.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS 31
3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS 32
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS 34
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of AS 36
3.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA 38
3.5.6 Prevalent Cases of HLA-B27 Seropositivity in Diagnosed AS Cases 39
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for AS (2014-2024) - Alternative Scenario 42
3.6.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS 42
3.6.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA 43
3.7 Discussion 45
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 45
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 46
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 46
4 Appendix 48
4.1 Bibliography 48
4.2 About the Authors 53
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 53
4.2.2 Reviewers 53
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 54
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 55
4.3 About GlobalData 56
4.4 About EpiCast 56
4.5 Disclaimer 57

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Diagnostic Criterion for AS and Nr-axSpA 11
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AS 13
Table 3: Summary of the Global Reported Prevalence of AS 14
Table 4: Incidence of AS, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1935-1973, Rochester, Minnesota, US 15
Table 5: Annual Incidence of AS, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1980-1990, Finland 15
Table 6: 7MM, Sources of Diagnosed Prevalence Data for AS used in the Epidemiology Forecast 18
Table 7: 7MM, Sources of Diagnosed Prevalence Data for Nr-axSpA used in the Epidemiology Forecast 19
Table 8: 7MM, Sources of HLA-B27 Seropositivity Data in Diagnosed AS Cases used in the Epidemiology Forecast 20
Table 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, Select Years, N, 2014-2024 31
Table 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2014 33
Table 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Ages ?15 Years, N (Row %), 2014 35
Table 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, Select Years, N, 2014-2024 38
Table 13: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of HLA-B27 Seropositivity in Diagnosed AS Cases, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, Select Years, N, 2014-2024 40
Table 14: 6MM, HLA-B27 and Non-HLA-B27 Seropositivity Status Among Diagnosed AS Cases, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014 41
Table 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, Select Years, N, 2014-2024 42
Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, Select Years, N, 2014-2024 44

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014-2024 32
Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, N, 2014 34
Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014 36
Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of AS, Cases per 100,000 Population, Men and Women, 2014 37
Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA , Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014-2024 39
Figure 6: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of HLA-B27 Seropositivity in Diagnosed AS Cases, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014-2024 40
Figure 7: 6MM, HLA-B27 and Non-HLA-B27 Seropositivity Status Among Diagnosed AS Cases, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014 41
Figure 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AS, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014-2024 43
Figure 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Nr-axSpA, Both Sexes, Ages ?15 Years, N, 2014-2024 44

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