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United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 99 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While the government will fall short of its 3.5mn b/d production target for 2020, oil productionis set for significant growth over the coming three to five years. The outlook on gas is more bearish, due tothe high cost and technically challenging nature of the country's non-associated gas resource base. Risinggas reinjection into the UAE's maturing oilfields will also undercut marketable production over the longerterm. The consumption outlook for both oil and gas is strong, although ongoing subsidy reform willsomewhat temper growth. The UAE will grow increasingly dependent on imports of pipeline gas and LNGacross the forecast period. However, it is set to become a net exporter of fuels from 2016 due to theexpansion at Ruwais.We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil & gas sector:

- A number of projects under development will boost oil and gas production in the coming years. However,the UAE is heavily reliant on maturing oil fields and accelerated depletion rates in a lower oil priceenvironment remain a risk to the sector.

- The UAE holds little unexplored territory and the space for a major new discovery is limited; reserveswill be supported by continued improvement in recovery rates.

- Refined fuels consumption growth is set to remain strong, despite ongoing subsidy reform. The impact ofreforms will be somewhat blunted in the short run by the sharp fall in international oil prices and asustained uptrend in vehicle sales.

- Gas consumption growth will remain strong, although the pace of growth will slow progressively due toincreased electricity tariffs and diversification of the domestic power mix towards nuclear andrenewables.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends: Crude Oil 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 36
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 43
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
UAE - Risk/Reward Index 48
UAE Upstream Index 48
UAE Downstream Index 48
Market Overview 49
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms 49
Licensing Regime 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Refineries In The UAE 51
Oil Export Terminals 51
Table: UAE Export Terminals 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Competitive Landscape Summary 52
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil and Gas Sector 53
Company Profile 54
ADNOC 54
BP 58
Dolphin Energy 60
Emarat 63
ENOC 66
ExxonMobil 69
Royal Dutch Shell 72
Total 74
Other Summaries 76
Regional Overview 82
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview 82
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth 82
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth 84
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020 86
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress 87
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 89
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024) 90
Glossary 92
Table: Glossary Of Terms 92
Methodology 94
Industry Forecast Methodology 94
Source 96
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 96
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 98
Table: Weighting 99

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