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Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Upstream investment in Bolivia continues at steady levels, but weak reserves growth of both oiland gas persists, creating long-term uncertainty for production and exports. The fall in global oil prices hasled to sharp reductions in earnings from oil-indexed gas sales to Argentina and Brazil, on whom Bolivia isentirely dependent for exports. Continued investment in projects to monetise domestic gas resources asthrough increased local consumption in the residential, power and industrial sectors could result intightening of the supply-demand picture in the medium term.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Preliminary data from Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) shows natural gasdiscoveries in Bolivia totalled about 1.5trn cubic meters in 2015, underscoring the country's belowground promise. However, we caution that significant operational headwinds will persist given thecompany's shrinking profits and budget amid the global sector downturn. Our outlook for 2016 remainspositive with a number of key projects, including first gas from the Ipati and Aquio fields, but we cautionthat long term growth will be challenging to achieve.

- The start-up of national oil company YPFB's virtual LNG supply project in Bolivia on February 15marked an important change in the country's domestic energy makeup. As the first such project of its kindin Bolivia, the USD144mn Rio Grande LNG facility will support growing demand for gas in ruralcommunities which lack access to the country's vast resource due to a insufficient pipeline connectivity.

- In February, the Bolivian government signed a much-anticipated series of agreements with Russian oiland gas major Gazprom covering exploration, production and transportation of hydrocarbons as well asconstruction and upgrading of associated infrastructure. The memorandum also included updates toBolivia's natural gas development plan through 2040, implying added involvement by the Russian firm.

- In March, the joint venture between PdVSA and YPFB to drill the Lliquimuni C X-1 well in the La Pazregion came up dry, with the well failing to yield any commercially viable quantities of oil and gas. Theproject had been touted as highly promising by President Evo Morales prior to its development.

Table Of Contents

Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Bolivia - Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 19
Refining 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bolivia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bolivia 2020-2025) 21
Refined Fuels Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bolivia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bolivia 2020-2025) 23
Gas Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Gas Consumption (Bolivia 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Bolivia 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Oil 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2020) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 30
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bolivia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bolivia 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 35
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 36
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 37
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 40
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Bolivia - Risk/Reward Index 43
Market Overview 45
Bolivia Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Table: Bolivia - Upstream Tax Regime 46
Licensing Regime 46
Table: Bolivia - Contract And Licensing Regime 46
Licensing Rounds 46
Bolivia Oil and Gas Infrastructure 47
Refineries 47
Table: Oil Refineries In Bolivia 48
Oil Pipelines 48
Table: Bolivia - Oil Pipelines 48
Gas Pipelines 48
Table: Bolivia - Gas Export Pipelines 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Competitive Landscape Summary 50
Table: Key Upstream Players 51
Table: Key Downstream Player 51
Company Profile 52
YPFB 52
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Bolivia 53
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 53
Petrobras 55
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 56
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 56
Repsol Bolivia 58
Table: Table: Key Projects in Bolivia 59
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 59
Regional Overview 61
Latin America Overview 61
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Source 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 78
Table: Weighting 79

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