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  5. > Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 130 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term,underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over thenext decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continuedheadwinds from the corruption scandal and ongoing political crisis. As such, we maintain a relativelymodest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle tothe upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence,and a burdensome regulatory environment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

- On May 12, Brazil's Senate joined the lower house, voting to open an impeachment trial for PresidentDilma Rousseff for alleged misuse of public funds. Brazil is set for a shift to more centrist policies withthe ascendance of former vice president Michel Temer to the presidency. We expect that the Senate willultimately vote to impeach Rousseff in the months ahead, ending 13 years of leftist Partido dosTrabalhadores (PT) rule, and paving the way for Temer to remain in power until new elections are held in2018.

- While early policy statements from Temer and his aides indicate upside for Brazilian growth over thenext few years, staunch legislative opposition from Rousseff's PT, an ongoing impeachment trial andpotential for substantial public pushback against cutting spending in the midst of a deep economicrecession will likely stymie the pace of reform, including within the oil and gas sector.

- Reports are surfacing that Brazilian officials plan to alter existing presalt regulations in the coming weeksto encourage greater private investment in the oil sector. The new proposals would allow privately ownedcompanies to operate production-sharing contracts (PSCs) in deepwater acreage, altering a key elementof the Presalt Law passed in 2010. Producers other than national oil company (NOC) Petrobras will onlybe able to operate in the presalt if blocks are sold to combine operations with existing concessions thatwere signed prior to the passage of the 2010 law.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves 14
Table: Breakdown Of Offshore Reserves 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) 31
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 32
Upstream Production - Gas 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 36
Refining 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes 40
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 45
Gas Consumption 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 49
Trade - Oil 50
Crude Trade Forecasts 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2020) 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 53
Refined Fuels Forecasts 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 58
Industry Risk Reward Index 59
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 59
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 59
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 60
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 61
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 64
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 67
Market Overview 70
Brazil Energy Market Overview 70
Overview/State Role 70
Licensing And Regulation 71
Licensing Rounds 72
International Energy Relations 75
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 78
Oil Refineries 78
Table: Refineries In Brazil 78
Service Stations 83
Oil Terminals/Ports 83
Oil Pipelines 83
LNG Terminals 83
Gas Pipelines 84
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector 89
Company Profile 90
Brazil - Petrobras: Doubling Down On Upstream Strategy 90
Table: Petrobras' Domestic and International Assets 95
Table: Top 10 Upstream Asset Impairments in 2015 95
Chevron Brasil 99
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 100
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 100
Repsol 102
Latest Updates 102
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 103
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 103
Shell Brasil 105
Latest Updates 105
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 106
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 106
Statoil do Brasil 108
Latest Updates 108
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 109
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 109
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 110
Latest Updates 110
Table: Table: Current Upstream Assets 111
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 111
Regional Overview 112
Latin America Overview 112
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 121
Glossary 123
Table: Glossary Of Terms 123
Methodology 125
Industry Forecast Methodology 125
Source 127
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 127
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 129
Table: Weighting 130

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