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Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 105 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Pharmaceutical manufacturers will face increased pricing pressures from the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) as we expect a wave of cost-containment measures to be adopted. The NHIF will leverage its purchasing power to reduce its runaway pharmaceutical expenditure, with negative implications for the sector's growth profile. We expect generic drug penetration to rise and patented drug sales to slow considerably as the NHIF rebalances its expenditures.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.53bn (USD1.72bn) in 2014 to BGN2.46bn (USD1.38bn) in 2015; -2.7% in local currency terms and -19.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q115.
- Healthcare: BGN6.04bn (USD4.10bn) in 2014 to BGN5.97bn (USD3.35bn) in 2015; -1.2% in local currency terms and -18.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised significantly downwards from Q115.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic .. 12
Operational Risk . 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast . 15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) . 16
Healthcare Market Forecast . 17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) 19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) . 19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) 19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) . 21
Patented Drug Market Forecast .. 22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) 24
Generic Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) . 26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast .. 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2011-2019) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast .. 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2013-2019) 31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .. 32
Macroeconomic Forecasts .. 33
Economic Analysis .. 33
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index .. 40
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index . 46
Rewards .. 46
Risks . 47
Market Overview 48
Industry Trends And Developments .. 50
Epidemiology . 50
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035 52
Healthcare Sector . 53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2009-2014) . 54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2009-2014) . 54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2009-2014) 55
Healthcare Insurance 55
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020 56
Reforming The Health Insurance Model .. 57
Healthcare Financing .. 58
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014 59
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015 . 59
Research and Development 60
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014 . 60
Clinical Trials 61
Regulatory Development .. 62
Pharmaceutical Advertising 63
Intellectual Property Environment . 64
Pricing Regime .. 65
Recent Pricing Developments . 67
Drug Policy Amendments 67
Reimbursement Regime 68
Reimbursement Regime Developments . 70
Competitive Landscape . 71
Research-Based Industry . 71
Generic Drugmakers 71
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector . 72
Wholesale Sector .. 73
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012 . 74
Company Profile . 75
Sopharma . 75
Biovet . 79
Actavis Bulgaria .. 81
GlaxoSmithKline . 84
Novartis . 86
Sanofi . 88
Pfizer . 90
Merck and Co .. 92
Demographic Forecast .. 94
Demographic Outlook 94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025) . 95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 95
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 96
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025) . 96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 97
Glossary .. 99
Methodology .. 101
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model .. 101
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 101
Notes On Methodology .. 102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 103
Index Overview 104
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 104
Indicator Weightings . 105

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