Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 101 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: The Ministry of Health's plan to increase MAH fees, coupled with price cuts for generic drugs and freezes on OTC medicine prices indicate that the Bulgarian pharmaceutical market will not see meaningful growth in 2014. However, we expect a pickup in demand for innovative drugs to reinvigorate interest in the country, although it will continue to present a relatively small opportunity for drugmakers in the region.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.32bn (USD1.58bn) in 2013 to BGN2.39bn (USD1.60bn) in 2014; +2.9% in local currency terms and 1.3% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised due to currency strengthening.
- Healthcare: BGN5.69bn (USD3.87bn) in 2013 to BGN5.87bn (USD3.93bn) in 2014; +3.1% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised upwards due to currency strengthening.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Political 11
Economic ... 12
Business Environment . 13
Industry Forecast 14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast .. 14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . 15
Healthcare Market Forecast ... 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . . 18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . 18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . . 19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast ... 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast ... 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) 22
Generic Drug Market Forecast .... 23
Table: Members Of Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers' Association (BGPharmA*), 2011 . . 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . 24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast ... 25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2010-2018) . . 26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast ... 27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, USDmn (Bulgaria 2012-2018) . . . 28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, BGNmn (Bulgaria 2012-2018) . . 28
Other Healthcare Data 29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 30
Macroeconomic Forecasts 31
Economic Analysis . 31
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity 38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings .... 39
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Ratings 46
Rewards ... 46
Risks ... 46
Market Overview . 48
Industry Trends And Developments 49
Epidemiology . 49
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population) . . 50
Communicable Diseases .. 51
Table: Reported Cases Of HIV/AIDS, 2002-2009 . . 52
Healthcare Sector 52
Healthcare Insurance . 53
Healthcare Reform Through To 2020 54
Healthcare Financing 55
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014 . . 57
Research and Development 57
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2011 . . . 58
Clinical Trials 58
Regulatory Development ... 59
Pharmaceutical Advertising .. 60
Intellectual Property Environment .... 61
Pricing Regime .... 62
Drug Policy Amendments 64
Reimbursement Regime ... 66
Reimbursement Regime Developments ... 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Pharmaceutical Industry . 69
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 71
Wholesale Sector . 71
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012 . 73
Company Profile .. 74
Sopharma .. 74
Biovet ... 78
Actavis Bulgaria .... 80
GlaxoSmithKline ... 82
Novartis 84
Sanofi ... 86
Pfizer ... 88
Merck and Co 90
Demographic Forecast . 91
Demographic Outlook . 91
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . 92
Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 93
Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . 94
Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . 94
Glossary 95
Methodology ... 97
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model .... 97
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model . 97
Notes On Methodology .... 98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 99
Ratings Overview .... 100
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . . 100
Indicator Weightings .... 101

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