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Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive and optimistic outlook regarding the Kenyan mobile market and havemade a slight revision to our forecast. Additionally, growth in market dynamics will be supported by lowpenetration rates, currently hovering around 81.0%. Mobile financial services, in particular, will be a keydriver for both subscription and revenue growth. However, we remain watchful of recent consolidation inthe market, strong competition in the wireline sector, and Helios's acquisition of a 70% stake in TelecomKenya. Furthermore, we are still of the opinion that the completed digital migration will free up newspectrum, easing the response to growth in the data market.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

- The Kenyan mobile market grew by 12.1% y-o-y in 2015.

- Mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) appreciation continued, with Safaricom registering a 1.2% yo-y increase in blended ARPU in Q315. We forecast monthly blended ARPU to grow to KES399.0mn in2016.

- The regulator is considering a fresh round of mobile termination rate cuts, anticipated to take force nextyear when the present rates expire. It is likely that this will result in increased competition and couldresult in a price war.

- The disconnection of Telekom Kenya's CDMA network led to a substantial fall in fixed-linesubscriptions. We nevertheless forecast another 3.5% contraction in fixed-line telephone subscriptions in2016.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020) 16
Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 20
Kenya Risk/Reward Index 22
Market Overview 24
Market Drivers And Trends 24
Mobile 24
Table: Mobile Financial Services Subscribers 31
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points 33
Wireline Voice and Broadband 33
Table: Internet Subscriptions By Technology 36
Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market 37
Pay TV/Convergence 37
Regulatory Development 39
Regulatory Overview 39
Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 39
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector 46
Table: Mobile Market Overview 46
Table: Safaricom 46
Table: Airtel 48
Table: Orange 48
Table: Equitel 49
Table: Broadband Subscriptions 49
Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions 49
Company Profile 50
Telkom Kenya 50
Safaricom 54
Demographic Forecast 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 61
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 69

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