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  5. > Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 121 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation marks the start of a fundamental shift for thecountry's hydrocarbons sector. Whilst it will be a number of years before results are seen in the country'sproduction and reserves data, over the long term the reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse adecade-long decline in oil production. Pemex's upstream activity will remain limited over the next two yearsamid the broad industry downturn.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

-Weak fundamentals combined with bearish speculative positioning have sustained weaknessof benchmark prices below profitable levels for Mexican crude production. Our forecast for continuedprice volatility over the next several months will weigh on Mexico's already downbeat outlook, limitinginvestment into existing projects by state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). We thereforemaintain our downbeat expectation for total liquids production in 2016 at -6.9% y-o-y implying areduction of 180,000b/d this year. This compares to a decline of 6.4% y-o-y in 2015 and extendsMexico's overall losses for a 12th consecutive year.

-The Mexican government's USD4.2bn bailout of Pemex underscores the state-owned oil company'scontinued struggles in the face of an elevated debt burden, sizeable arrears to oilfield service providersand limited liquidity. While the bailout will weigh on Mexico's sovereign credentials in the shortterm, we believe damage to investor sentiment will be mitigated by the government's history of prudentmacroeconomic policies and Pemex's ongoing cost-cutting measures.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 19
Table: Mexico - Major Upstream Projects 19
Upstream Production - Oil 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Round One Development Timeline 25
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2014-2019) 32
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2020-2025) 33
Upstream Production - Gas 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Cost Per Well 37
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2020-2025) 40
Refining 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed 41
Table: Pemex Downstream Spending Plan 43
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2020-2025) 46
Refined Fuels Consumption 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019) 49
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025) 49
Gas Consumption 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019) 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025) 53
Trade - Oil 54
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends 54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2020) 57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025) 58
Refined Fuels Forecasts 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019) 60
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025) 60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 61
Latest Updates 61
Structural Trends 61
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019) 65
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025) 65
Industry Risk Reward Index 66
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 66
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 66
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 67
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 68
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 71
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 73
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index 74
Upstream Index - Overview 74
Downstream Index - Overview 75
Market Overview 76
Energy Market Overview 76
Overview 76
Government Policy 76
Licensing And Regulation 80
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region 80
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region 80
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec 81
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One 82
International Energy Relations 84
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades 87
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 88
Oil Refineries 88
Table: Downstream Projects 90
Service Stations 91
Oil Storage Facilities 91
Oil Terminals/Ports 91
Oil Pipelines 92
LNG Terminals 92
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico 93
Gas Pipelines 94
Competitive Landscape 97
Competitive Landscape Summary 97
Table: Key Energy Players 98
Table: Upstream Players 99
Table: Downstream Players 99
Company Profile 100
Pemex 100
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Mexico 101
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 101
Regional Overview 103
Latin America Overview 103
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025 112
Glossary 114
Table: Glossary Of Terms 114
Methodology 116
Industry Forecast Methodology 116
Source 118
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 118
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 120
Table: Weighting 121

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