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Mexico Retail Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for the Mexican consumer and retail spending as a whole continues to lookpromising, as a result of improved employment dynamics Following the release of historical data from thestatistics office, we have upgraded our 2014 data, and this has improved the total level of householdspending for our forecasts over the next five years Rising disposable incomes will see the non-essentialssegment outperform essentials spending in terms of growth rates, and this has already begun to attractinvestment from international players looking to capitalise on the opportunities, especially in the clothing &footwear segment

Premiumisation is key in lower growth segments such as food & drink and housing &utilities, encouraging Mexicans to trade up and spend more on higher-value products Online retailing hasbeen slow to take off, but with Amazon and Linio making investments in the market, it is only a matter oftime before these players eat into the share of traditional retailers and department storesKey Views & Developments- We expect household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a stronger labour market(unemployment stands at 41%, beating the US's 50%), and higher wages This will be further supportedby low inflation, which will help support real purchasing power, causing spending to reach MXN5,586bnin 2016, up from MXN5,230bn in 2015- Growing consumer acceptance and demand for online retail has the potential to radically disrupt andtransform the existing business environment and retail formats Amazon has invested heavily to expandthe market and this will likely cannibalise heavily on market share from traditional retailers anddepartment stores This will additionally intensify competition in convenience and place pressure onmargins for retailers- Walmex has recently unveiled plans to expand its portfolio in Mexico as it expects to see positive salesgrowth, supporting our view that Mexico provides a profitable investment opportunity for retailers-We have revised down our 2016 forecast for the Mexican peso, from MXN1620/USD to MXN1750/USD Increased global risk aversion given tighter global liquidity conditions and rising market fears of adisorderly slowdown in China will weigh on the peso Coupled with a sharper-than-expected drop in oilprices - which will cool export growth and undermine investor sentiment toward the oil producingeconomy - this underpins our view that the peso will be vulnerable to sharp sell-offs in the months ahead-Banco de Mexico (the Mexican reserve bank) raised interest rates in December 2015 following the FEDincrease, and further hikes can be expected throughout the year However, the weak external environmentand low inflation will keep interest expansion subdued and will remain offset by the growing economiccompetitiveness internationally of the Mexican economy, which will fuel strong household incomegrowth

Table Of Contents

Mexico Retail Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Mexico 2013-2020) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 19
Clothing and Footwear 20
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 20
Household Goods 20
Table: Household Goods Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 21
Personal Care and Effects 22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Mexico 2013-2020) 22
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 24
Table: Household Income Data (Mexico 2013-2020) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Mexico 2013-2020) 28
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Mexico 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Babies (Mexico 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Mexico 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young People (Mexico 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Mexico 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Mexico 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Mexico 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Mexico 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Urban (Mexico 2013-2020) 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316 36
Mexico Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Competitive Landscape 45
Clothing and Footwear 45
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 45
Household Goods 46
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 46
Electronics 46
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 46
Department Stores 47
Table: Selected Department Stores 47
E-commerce 47
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers 47
Pharmacies And Drug Stores 48
Table: Selected Pharmacies and Drug Stores 48
Glossary 49
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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