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  5. > Peru Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Peru Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 90 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade owning to strong projectpipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential owningto a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market, diminishing theattractiveness of the country's oil and gas sector amid the industry-wide downturn.

Key developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:

- Peru will remain among the region's brightest growth stories through 2017, as production growth in themining sector and strengthening public investment lead accelerating economic activity. In recent quarters,growth has accelerated largely due to the beginning of production at Las Bambas, a massive copper mineset to rank among the world's three largest when it hits full production capacity later this year.

- We expect the completion of the Southern Peruvian Pipeline (GSP) will be delayed to 2019 following theexit of its constructor, Odebrecht, the owner of a 55% stake in the project. The GSP - which is currently34% completed - is expected to supply feedstock to two thermal power plants currently underconstruction in Ilo and Mollendo.

- On May 6, Repsol and Petroperu agreed to increase fuel prices. Increases varied depending on theoctane of the fuel, with prices at the pump rising from 2.6 to 4.7% in total.

- Modernisation of Petroperu's 62,000b/d Talara refinery is progressing slightly ahead of schedule,supporting our current downstream capacity forecast. As of May 4, the project was 37% completed. Inthe same month, the company issued a tender for underwater lines and multibuoys. Eight groupssubmitted consultations as of May 31, including Cadape, Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios, Cosapi, JJCSchraderCamargo, M y C Pariñas, Mota-Engil.

- The full commissioning of the 4.5mntp Train 1 of the Sabine Pass LNG export facility in the US in Maywill threaten Peru's LNG market share. Though this will compete with Peru's exports, we believe thecountry will remain a dominant player in the region due to a lower variable cost of production comparedto US supplies.

Table Of Contents

Peru Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Peru - Key Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Peru 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Production (Peru 2020-2025) 25
Refining 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Oil 37
Crude Oil 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019) 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025) 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 45
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 46
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 47
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 50
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 52
Peru - Risk/Reward Index 53
Upstream Index - Rewards 53
Upstream Index - Risks 53
Downstream Index - Rewards 54
Downstream Index - Risks 54
Market Overview 55
Peru Energy Market Overview 55
Overview/State Role 55
Licensing And Regulation 55
Table: Latin American Regulatory Regimes 56
Government Policy 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 61
Oil Refineries 61
Table: Refineries in Peru 61
Pipelines 62
LNG Terminals 65
Competitive Landscape 67
Competitive Landscape Summary 67
Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil and Gas Sector 68
Company Profile 69
Petroperú 69
Latest Updates 69
Table: Table - Major Assets in Peru 70
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) 70
Regional Overview 72
Latin America Overview 72
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 81
Glossary 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
Methodology 85
Industry Forecast Methodology 85
Source 87
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 87
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 89
Table: Weighting 90

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