Poland Autos Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI continues to see only lacklustre growth in the Polish auto segment over the course of 2012, not least because the market is so production and export focused, with a particular emphasis on supplying vehicles to Western Europe, where consumer spending continues to falter as the eurozone crisis rumbles on. According to Reuters, as much as 98% of autos produced in Poland are intended for shipment overseas, with the country’s export market valued at US Dollar 16bn in 2012. Poland is under increasing pressure from Slovakia as a cheap Central European manufacturing hub and may be forced to look east as it seeks to escape economic stagnation in its traditional auto industries. However, there is reason for optimism as Poland’s Deputy Finance Minister Dominik Radziwill recently declared in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita newspaper that he expected economic growth in 2012 to reach between 3% and 3.5%, far beyond European Commission projections of 2.5%. Auto production accounts for around 7% of Poland's industrial output so continues to play an important part in ensuring the country’s general economic wellbeing although remains subject to economic fluctuations behind its borders and beyond its control. Poland’s auto segment was valued at between Euros 18.7bn (US Dollar 23bn) and Euros 19.1bn (US Dollar 23.6bn) in 2011, according to the Warsaw Business Journal, and will continue to hold its breath in 2012 as Germany and France try to lead Europe out of recession. Poland itself is experiencing unemployment at a five-year high of 13%, according to The Economist, but the country should at least receive a timely economic boost from the influx of tourists visiting in June and July 2012 for the UEFA Euro 2012 football tournament, which Poland is co-hosting with Ukraine.
Provisional estimates for March 2012 compiled by the European Association of Auto Manufacturers and cited by Bloomberg suggest that Poland achieved auto revenues growth of 8.6% for the month, defying a Europe-wide slump that marked the continent’s lowest revenues score since 1998. The country’s relatively low labour costs continue to attract new industry players to set up production facilities on its soil, particularly from the supplier and auto component manufacturing segments . However, the decision by Fiat in late 2011 to return production of its tried and trusted Panda model to Italy came as a blow, especially given the heightened competition the country is facing from Slovakia, which has impressed the likes of Kia sufficiently enough for them to begin building their new SUV lines there. Fiat, Opel Škoda, Toyota and Renault remain the key players in the Polish auto segment and their moves will be watched with interest by rivals with designs on relocating to a less costly production base.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary ....... 5
Industry SWOT Analysis ..... 6
Poland Autos Industry Environment and Risk Analysis ...... 6
Poland Political Environment and Risk Analysis ...... 7
Poland Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .... 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT .... 8
World Overview ... 9
World Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends ... 9
Data : Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012......... 9
Regional Overview ....... 12
Audi's Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy ... 12
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ........ 16
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings ... 16
Data : BMI Market Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 20

Market Projection Scenario ... 21
Data : Auto Production, 2009-2106..... 21
Data : Auto Sales, from 2009 to 2016 .... 22
Production And Sales .. 23
Trade ...... 26

Competition Overview ......... 28
Overview ...... 28
Investment Climate 29
Company News ...... 30
Used Vehicles ........ 33
Manufacturers ....... 33
Suppliers ...... 35
Company Monitor ......... 38
GM-PSA Alliance Misses The Core Issue . 38
Company Profiles ......... 41
Fiat .... 41
Å koda Auto ... 43
Renault ......... 44
Toyota Motor ......... 45
Opel ... 47
Intrall . 48
Poland Demographic Outlook ......... 49
Data : Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ..... 50
Data : Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ...... 51
Data : Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 52
Data : Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 52
BMI Methodology ......... 53
How We Generate Our Projection ing Model .... 53
Sources ........ 54

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