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Slovenia Retail Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Household expenditure is forecast to remain stagnant in Slovenia in 2016 External demand hasrisen as the eurozone recovery remains on a cyclical upswing, but domestic demand in Slovenia hasremained weak This is largely due to the debt overhang that persists in the banking and enterprise sectorsof the economy, which is dragging on investment and employment growth Although real GDP growth overthe short term will be quite low and dependent on external demand as a result, this will help to placeSlovenia on a more sustainable medium-term growth trajectory Unemployment remains persistently high inthe country and has failed to make a convincing decline As a result of high unemployment, wage growthhas remained persistently weak, further reducing aggregate household consumption in the economy withknock-on effects on retail spending

Key Views and Developments

- Although there have been rumours for some years that Swedish furniture and homewares giant IKEAwas to launch in Slovenia, no official confirmation had been made However in early 2016 the retailerconfirmed that it has purchased a space in the BTC shopping area in Ljubljana to build its first store inSlovenia The company hopes that construction will be complete in 2018

- At the end of 2015, comparison shopping platform Ceneje carried out a survey among 33,000 onlineshoppers in Slovenia This found that consumers who purchased at least once per month online hadincreased by 58% since 2013 Only 16% of all Internet users in the country were found to have had noexperience of online shopping According to the research, there are about 1,500 web retailers in Slovenia

- UK retailer Marks & Spencer has recently announced plans to close 12 stores across five EasternEuropean countries, a move which will see the retailer leave Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Serbia andMontenegro by May 2016 Marks & Spencer will now focus attention on its presence in other successfulEastern European markets, with particular focus on Poland, Hungary and Romania

- Total household spending will grow steadily from EUR216bn to EUR25bn during the period between2016 and 2020

- The share of households in the USD10,000-plus income bracket will grow slowly to reach 912% in2020, one of the highest figures in the region A growing middle class will contribute to expanding salesvolumes for high-street and mid-range retailers

- Large format stores will experience continued demand contraction as demographic trends encourage ashift to smaller discount stores Contraction of the key demographic (aged between 20 and 64 years)reduces the need for households to purchase in bulk, creating higher demand for smaller and moreconvenient stores formats

Table Of Contents

Slovenia Retail Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Slovenia 2013-2020) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Slovenia 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food and Drink 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 19
Clothing And Footwear 20
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 20
Household Goods 21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 21
Personal Care and Effects 22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Slovenia 2013-2020) 22
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 24
Table: Household Income Data (Slovenia 2013-2020) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Slovenia 2013-2020) 28
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Slovenia 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Babies (Slovenia 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Slovenia 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young People (Slovenia 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Slovenia 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Slovenia 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Slovenia 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Slovenia 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Urban (Slovenia 2013-2020) 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316 36
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Competitive Landscape 45
Clothing and Footwear 45
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 45
Household Goods 46
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 46
Electronics 46
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 46
Department Stores 47
Table: Selected Department Store Retailers 47
E-Commerce 48
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers 48
Pharmacies 48
Table: Selected Pharmacies 48
Glossary 49
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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