The Future of Electric Vehicles: Technology, infrastructure developments and the future outlook

• Publication date: May 2010

Interest in electric vehicles is on the rise. For a variety of reasons this interest is unlikely to dissipate in the foreseeable future. These reasons range from climate change and environmental pollution, to the gradual depletion of fossil fuels worldwide, and to the nationalistic desire to reduce dependence on imported oil. Each country faces its own unique set of challenges but environmental pressures and the looming background threat of ...

Interest in electric vehicles is on the rise. For a variety of reasons this interest is unlikely to dissipate in the foreseeable future. These reasons range from climate change and environmental pollution, to the gradual depletion of fossil fuels worldwide, and to the nationalistic desire to reduce dependence on imported oil.
Each country faces its own unique set of challenges but environmental pressures and the looming background threat of global warming are common to all. In the US, it has been estimated by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory that if 73% of the country’s cars and light vehicles turned electric, it could cut oil demand by an estimated 6.2 million barrels per day, approximately half of the country’s current imports.
For this reason alone, interest in cleaner vehicles as alternatives to traditional gasoline powered cars will grow. Electric vehicles stand poised to fulfil a need at this important time, providing this cleaner mode of transport, to aid the effort to curb harmful emissions from liquid fuels. Technology, economic context, environmental issues are all aligning to create a more commercial backdrop for electric vehicles.

Key features of this report

• The context for the development of the electric vehicles sector including an analysis of future energy demand and the expected sustained demand for fossil fuels
• Analysis of the opportunities and challenges for utility companies faced with a significant rise in the level of electric vehicles worldwide
• Potential investment requirements across the energy value chain arising from growth in the electric vehicles sector
• Examination of the differing and emerging technologies available for electric vehicles, including batteries and smart charging

Scope of this report

• Analyse the opportunities for future investment through careful study of the development and evolution of the electric vehicles market
• Plan infrastructure enhancements better through the understanding of how the electric vehicles segment will take shape in the years ahead
• Guard against potential shortcomings, to infrastructure, distribution, generation, as a result of the growth of electric vehicles sector
• Assess the attraction and the risks for your company of aligning more closely to other players within the electric vehicles market such as automotive manufacturers

Key Market Issues

• Technology opens up new possibilities: Electric vehicles are not new but have been around for well over a century. However, it is improvements in modern technology that mean these vehicles may now provide a viable alternative to traditional gasoline powered cars
• Get smart: Millions of new electric cars on the roads could place a strain on the world’s electricity network. This becomes more manageable with the introduction of a smart grid and the adoption of vehicle smart charging to help balance the load
• The future is now: Despite the limited number of electric vehicles on the roads, and other hybrids, the rate of growth in recent years, has been very high. With more manufacturers launching commercial models in the next few years, the electric vehicles sector and related hybrids market is entering a new era
• Sustained fossil fuels reliance: Despite climate change pressures, fossil fuels still dominate global energy demand, but clean and renewable energy is on the high priority list, an area in which electric vehicles can dovetail neatly

Key findings from this report

• The IEA group believes the number and type of hybrid electric cars available to the market will grow substantially through to 2015, which will accelerate sales, albeit from this modest base. In its 2009 outlook, the IEA states that, by 2012, global hybrid electric vehicle sales may reach 2.2m units
• Major corporations such as Coca-Cola, AT&T, FedEx and Wal-Mart all now include hybrids in their vehicle fleets, as do forward thinking utilities such as Tokyo Electric Power Corporation
• Dozens of new hybrids and pure electric vehicles are to hit the market during the 2010-2014 window from commercial manufacturers such as Renault, which is launching a full range of passenger cars
• Electric vehicle costs are falling. In the US, the base model Nissan Leaf, with federal tax credits, plus a home charging station installation, will cost $26,380, although this could drop to $21,380 in California, with an extra $5,000 state rebate.
• The administration of President Obama in the US has called for 1m plug-in electric drive vehicles on US roads by 2015, which would require significant upgrading to the electric vehicle infrastructure.

Key questions answered

• How will the electricity network need to respond to the growth in the number of electric vehicles on the roads?
• How much investment will be required in power infrastructure as a result of the projected rise in the number of electric vehicles?
• Which automotive companies are active in this sector with investment in electric vehicle products?
• How can utilities take advantage of the electric vehicles sector for distributed generation and storage?
• To what extent will the growth of the electric vehicles sector place a strain on the global power system and the world’s energy resources?

Global Clean Vehicle Industry

Table of Contents
The Future of Electric Vehicles
Executive summary 8
Brief history of electric vehicles and market drivers 8
Leading electric vehicle manufacturers & outlook 9
Infrastructure for electric vehicles 10
Smart grids & smart charging 10
Electric vehicles and distributed storage 11
Future outlook 12
Chapter 1 Brief history of electric vehicles
and market drivers 16
Summary 16
Brief history of electric vehicles 17
Brief history of electric vehicles 17
Drivers of renewed interest 19
Increased range of electric vehicles 22
Falling oil production/peak oil 24
Gasoline and fuel prices 27
Legislation 30
Reducing emissions 31
Size of the market 32
Chapter 2 Leading electric vehicles
manufacturers & outlook 36
Summary 36
Main vehicle technologies 37
iv
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) 39
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) 43
Battery-powered Electric Vehicles (BEV) 47
The first mass market BEVs 48
Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) 52
The role of utilities in EV evolution 54
Chapter 3 Infrastructure for electric vehicles 58
Summary 58
Charging infrastructure 59
Charging stations 61
Charging times 67
Increased power generation requirements 70
Increasing role of utilities 74
Vehicle and battery leasing 76
Chapter 4 Smart grids & smart charging 80
Summary 80
Smart grids & smart charging 81
Smart charging 83
Car manufacturers taking the lead 85
Smart charging standards 86
Who controls charging? 86
The role of utilities 89
Infrastructure investment 92
Public investment in the smart grid 93
Bi-directional power flows 94
Chapter 5 Electric vehicles and distributed
storage 96
Summary 96
Electric vehicles and distributed storage 97
Battery capacity and storage opportunities 98
Vehicle-to-grid 100
v
Benefits of V2G 102
Integrating V2G into the grid 103
Electric vehicles and renewable generation 104
Energy harvesting 106
Chapter 6 Future outlook 110
Summary 110
Future outlook 111
Market outlook 112
United States 113
Europe 115
Japan 116
China 117
India 118
Infrastructure requirements in the next decade 119
Potential investment needed 120
Glossary 122
Index 125
vi
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: World oil consumption by region, (m bls/d), 2006-2030 26
Figure 1.2: World oil price projections, reference case scenario, (US$), 2000-2030 29
Figure 2.3: Total number of registered hybrids (units) 2009 41
Figure 2.4: Chevy Volt 46
Figure 2.5: Nissan Leaf 50
Figure 3.6: Coloumb ChargePoint 64
Figure 3.7: Elektrobay 65
Figure 3.8: EV fuelling times 69
Figure 3.9: EV power requirement 69
Figure 4.10: Smarter Grid Model 82
Figure 4.11: Smart Charging 3.0 88
Figure 4.12: Pacific Gas & Electricity Company (PG&E) charging rates for electric vehicles 91
Figure 5.13: Vehicle-to-grid 101
List of Tables
Table 1.1: World oil consumption by region (m bls/d), 2006-2030 25
Table 1.2: World oil price projections, reference case scenario, (US$), 2000-2030 28
Table 1.3: Major EV models 33
Table 2.4: Major PEV announcements by OEM and year 38
Table 2.5: Total number of registered hybrids (units), 2009 40
Table 2.6: Planned hybrid launches 2010-2014 43
Table 2.7: Percentage change in fuel saving of hybrids (gallons/mile) 45
Table 3.8: Select available recharging units, Europe, US, 2009 63
Table 3.9: Local generation charging options for PHEV-20 vehicles 67
Table 3.10: EV fuelling times and power requirement 68
Table 3.11: US regional increase in electrical demand due to PHEVs, 2020 to 2030 72
Table 3.12: Local generation charging options, 2009 73
Table 3.13: Electric vehicles pledge – five core areas 75
Table 4.14: EV load and charging projections for the top 20 US metropolitan areas (MW), 2010 83
Table 4.15: Smart charging technologies 84
Table 5.16: The V2G potential of the light vehicle fleet, compared with load, in 11 OECD
countries, 2006 100
Table 6.17: National EV and PHEV sales targets 112

Companies mentioned
Audi , BMW , BYD , Coloumb , Elektromotive , GM , GridPoint , Honda , IBM Juice , Mercedes , Mitsubishi , Nissan , Renault , Tesla , Toyota , ,