This report provides:

- an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region, which was previously published in June 2013.1 The revised forecasts are based on the latest available data, which covers the period to September 2013
- an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts
- data for Kuwait and Qatar, which are countries that we have now added to the forecast coverage.
- Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:
- market developments – based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data
- changes to the macroeconomic outlook, and competitive and regulatory environment
- changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Table Of Contents

Table of contents

7.Executive summary

8.The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a 2.9% CAGR to reach USD96 billion by 2018

9.Mobile data and fixed broadband will be the services with most growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and Internet demand

10.We have reduced our 2018 retail revenue forecasts because of a lower outlook for fixed voice, mobile broadband and business network services

11.Regional forecasts and summary of revisions

12.New forecast by service: telecoms service revenue will grow to USD96 billion in MENA in 2018, driven by mobile and fixed data services

13.Forecast revision by service: mobile broadband revenue has been reduced to reflect the shift to smartphones for data access

14.New revenue forecast by country: strong net growth in telecoms retail revenue is expected in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait

15.New forecast by country: Israel and the GCC countries will lead the MENA region in terms of smartphone and LTE penetration by 2018

16.Forecast revision by country: we have reduced our CAGR forecasts for retail revenue in all modelled countries except Israel

17.Key trends since our previous forecast: growth in smartphone adoption is exceeding expectations, while mobile broadband is lagging behind

18.Key trends since our previous forecast: M2M growth is revised downwards, and the decline in fixed voice connections accelerates

19.Key trends since our previous forecast: stronger-than-expected FTTx market growth will help offset the decline of fixed voice revenue

20.Individual country forecasts

21.Algeria: 3G will drive demand for mobile data services, and help maintain solid growth in the non-messaging mobile market

22.Algeria: Fixed and mobile voice were more resilient than anticipated; 3G will accelerate fixed-mobile broadband substitution

23.Egypt: Demand for handset data services will stimulate marginal growth, but political unrest is hampering the market

24.Egypt: Political instability has caused big changes since the last forecast, and the shift to handset data usage has accelerated

25.Israel: Competition and price erosion continue to hinder mobile growth, while fixed voice decline will be slower than expected

26.Israel: The outlook has improved slightly since our previous forecast because of operators’ efforts to slow down price erosion

27.Kuwait: Mobile and fixed data services will offer greater growth opportunities, while voice and messaging revenue is set to decline

28.Kuwait: Mobile data demand, supported by the recent LTE launch, will help boost revenue, while fixed broadband also shows growth

29.Morocco: Voice continues to dominate the mobile market, although data services will represent a growing share of retail revenue

30.Morocco: We have made changes to the outlook for LTE, handset data, mobile broadband and fixed broadband

31.Qatar: High revenue CAGR for handset data will drive growth in telecoms revenue

32.Qatar: Growth prospects are strong for both fixed and mobile markets, driven by ambitious plans for high-speed broadband

33.Saudi Arabia: Retail revenue in MENA’s largest telecoms market will grow at a 2.5% CAGR, driven by broadband and data

34.Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband and smartphone adoption exceeds expectations, while fixed broadband offsets declining voice revenue

35.UAE: Retail revenue will grow at a 3.1% CAGR, led by high growth in mobile handset data, and fixed and mobile broadband

36.UAE: New forecasts reflect accelerated erosion of legacy mobile services and increased adoption of smartphones and fibre

37.About the author and Analysys Mason

38.About the author

39.About Analysys Mason

40.Research from Analysys Mason

41.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018

Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018

Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018

Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018

Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018

Figure 8: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by service type, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018

Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018

Figure 10: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018

Figure 11: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by country, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018

Figure 12a-c: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the Middle East and North Africa

Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Algeria, 2009-2018

Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018

Figure 15: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018

Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Algeria

Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2009-2018

Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018

Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018

Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Egypt

Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Israel, 2009-2018

Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018

Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018

Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Israel

Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2009-2018

Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018

Figure 27: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018

Figure 28: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Kuwait

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Morocco, 2009-2018

Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018

Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018

Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Morocco

Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2009-2018

Figure 34: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018

Figure 35: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018

Figure 36: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Qatar

Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2009-2018

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018

Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018

Figure 40: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Saudi Arabia

Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UAE, 2009-2018

Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018

Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018

Figure 44: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the UAE

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