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Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research aims to help clients both within and outside the region to maximise growth opportunities in these rapidly changing markets. Our 5-year forecasts cover mobile and fixed KPIs for the developed Asia–Pacific region as a whole and more than five key countries. Forecast KPIs include connections, ARPU and revenue, technology, usage and traffic.

Table Of Contents

The Developed Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Contents


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8.Executive summary


9.DVAP markets are mature and stable, and telecoms retail revenue will grow from USD189 billion in 2014 to over USD200 billion in 2020


10.Mobile handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV will be the three main drivers for telecoms retail revenue growth in DVAP


11.Japan and South Korea have the biggest revenue and largest subscriber bases


12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets


13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators


14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison


15.Geographical coverage: FTTH/B and LTE will dominate in DVAP, and commercial 5G services are expected to launch by 2020


16.Market context: Telecoms service revenue accounts for 2.3% of GDP, and the average monthly retail spend in DVAP is USD65


17.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms service revenue will grow, thanks to continuous service upgrades and innovation


18.Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration is over 100% in all countries in DVAP, and is highest in Hong Kong at more than 200%


19.Mobile connections: 4G will account for most of the mobile connections in 2020 and operators are pioneers in technology advancement


20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for 87% of handsets by 2020, driven by the demand for 4G services and affordable devices


21.Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will remain stable as a balance of the price pressure and the increasing service value bundled in the packages


22.Fixed services: The number connections of fixed broadband over that of voice will increase fast from 65% in 2014 to 75% in 2020


23.Fixed broadband: Government initiatives directly or indirectly drive broadband development, but in the long run the markets will saturate


24.Key drivers at a glance for each Developed Asia-Pacific market


25.Individual country forecasts


26.Australia: Thanks to growth in broadband, M2M and business network services, revenue will be stable in this matured market


27.Australia - mobile: 4G penetration will increase rapidly in the near future, driven by operator investment and consumer demand


28.Australia- fixed: nbn roll-out continues to focus on the less-advanced but more-efficient technologies


29.Hong Kong: Operators will respond to competition pressure byandnbsp; continuing to differentiate themselves in various ways


30.Hong Kong - mobile: Mobile ARPU decline will be eased by increasing speed, bundling, contract subsidies and new services


31.Hong Kong- fixed: The decline in fixed voice usage will stabilise but penetration and revenue will decline quickly


32.Japan: Continues to be one of the most advanced telecoms markets with operators leading in technologies and innovation


33.Japan - mobile: Higher bandwidth and bundling help compensate for the voice and messaging decline and drive revenue growth


34.Japan - fixed: ARPU drops as operators reduce prices in order to attract subscribers, but that will stabilise in the long term


35.Singapore: Competition will continue to intensify, and multi-play offerings will remain mainstream


36.Singapore - mobile: The migration from 2G to 3G and 4G will accelerate, and market competition will increase


37.Singapore - fixed: Bundling is the norm and operators are trying to differentiate themselves using their strengths


38.South Korea: Mobile handset data will account for more than half of the telecoms retail revenue in 2020


39.South Korea - mobile: Operator investments and 4G marketing efforts will drive the migration to LTE and boost mobile traffic


40.South Korea - fixed: FTTB drives fixed broadband growth, and IPTV will reach 80% of the population


41.Taiwan: New services will drive revenue growth and compensate for traditional service revenue decline


42.Taiwan - mobile: Mobile broadband connections will increase at the expense of ARPU, while LTE connections will grow rapidly


43.Taiwan - fixed: New services will develop the broadband market further and ARPU for premium services will be sustained


44.About the authors and Analysys Mason


45.About the author


46.About Analysys Mason


LIST OF FIGURES


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020


Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, developed Asia-Pacific


Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia-Pacific


Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2020


Figure 6: Metrics for the 6 countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2014


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020


Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020


Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2020


Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2010-2020


Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Australia, 2010-2020


Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2010-20201


Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia


Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2010-2020


Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2010-2020


Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia


Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2010-2020


Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2014-2020


Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2014-2020


Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2010-2020


Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2010-2020


Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong


Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2010-2020


Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2010-2020


Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong


Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2010-2020


Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2014-2020


Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2014-2020


Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Japan, 2010-2020


Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2010-20201


Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan


Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2010-2020


Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2010-2020


Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan


Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2010-2020


Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2014-2020


Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2014-2020


Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Singapore, 2010-2020


Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2010-2020


Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore


Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2010-2020


Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2010-2020


Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore


Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2010-2020


Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2014-2020


Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2014-2020


Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, South Korea, 2010-2020


Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2010-2020


Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea


Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2010-2020


Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2010-2020


Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea


Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2010-2020


Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2014-2020


Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2014-2020


Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2010-2020


Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2010-2020


Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan


Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2010-2020


Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2010-2020


Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

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