<p>Growth in handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue in the developed Asia–Pacific region will result in an increase in overall telecoms retail revenue from USD222 billion in 2013 to USD232 billion in 2018.&nbsp;This forecast report analyses the latest telecoms market developments in region, and the drivers underpinning our outlook for telecoms services.</p>

About this report

This report provides:

-a 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for key countries
-an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
-an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
-a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
-Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews.
-In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).
-For the complete data set and our data series definitions, see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/DVAP2014.

Table Of Contents

Table of contents


8.Executive summary
9.The rate of voice revenue decline will slow down in developed Asia-Pacific, leading to a more stable revenue mix
10.Growth in mobile handset data revenue will prevent the overall telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific from declining
11.Hong Kong’s mobile market has effectively reached saturation, while fixed and mobile revenue growth will be highest in South Korea
12.Mobile voice and messaging performed worse than expected in 2013 while fixed broadband and IPTV performed better
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
15.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
16.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
17.Geographical coverage: South Korea will have the highest levels of LTE and fixed broadband adoption in the region by 2018
18.Market context: All six markets have almost reached saturation, yet the telecom market revenue contribution to GDP does not exceed 3%
19.Penetration: Fixed and mobile, all services
20.Mobile: Penetration by country (excluding M2M)
21.Mobile: Connections by technology generation
22.Mobile: Smartphone and LTE penetration
23.Mobile ARPU: LTE will considerably slow the rate of decline in ARPU in most countries, while South Korea’s ARPU will increase
24.Fixed services: VoIP take-up is sustaining fixed voice penetration, while growth in fixed broadband connections will slow
25.Fixed: Fixed broadband penetration by country (as a percentage of households)
26.Revenue and ARPU
27.Relative market size by service revenue
28.Revenue mix: The revenue mix of mobile and fixed services will be relatively constant during the next 5 years
29.Individual country forecasts
30.Australia: Mobile handset data revenue and M2M will be the main growth driver for mobile, and FTTH/B will drive fixed broadband
31.Australia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
32.Australia - mobile: We forecast solid growth for 4G connections, powered by LTE coverage expansion and swift launch of services
33.Australia - fixed: Operators will focus on FTTH/B and fixed voice penetration will continue to decline
34.Hong Kong: The telecoms market has largely saturated, but some growth is expected in mobile broadband, M2M and IPTV
35.Hong Kong: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
36.Hong Kong - mobile: Growth in the mobile market is expected to cease because it has already reached 200% penetration
37.Hong Kong - fixed: IPTV is the only fixed service that will grow while fibre broadband will continue to replace DSL connections
38.Japan: Handset data will drive mobile revenue growth, and fixed broadband and IPTV will drive fixed-line growth
39.Japan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
40.Japan - mobile: Advanced networks, improved services and multiple device ownership are driving mobile penetration growth
41.Japan - fixed: Operators are driving FTTH/B connections by offering innovative bundles
42.Singapore: Population growth will continue to drive growth in the telecoms market, and handset data will be the main revenue driver
43.Singapore: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
44.Singapore - mobile: The number of 4G connections will quickly increase to account for nearly 78% of mobile connections by 2018
45.Singapore - fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2.1% during 2013-2018 while FTTH/B will maintain fixed revenue
46.South Korea: After continuously declining for many years, mobile ARPU finally increased in 2013
47.South Korea: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
48.South Korea - mobile: Mobile ARPU will begin to increase, driven by advanced networks, devices and growth in handset data revenue
49.South Korea - fixed: Innovative technology and bundling will drive the growth in fixed broadband and IPTV penetration
50.Taiwan: LTE will drive growth in handset data and mobile broadband revenue, and put fixed services under pressure
51.Taiwan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
52.Taiwan - mobile: Launch of LTE in 2014 will lead to increased data spend reversing the trend of decreasing ASPU
53.Taiwan - fixed: Fixed broadband ASPU will stabilise as FTTH/B connections replace DSL, but fixed voice ASPU will decline sharply
54.About the authors and Analysys Mason
55.About the authors
56.About Analysys Mason
57.Research from Analysys Mason
58.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of report coverage
Figure 2:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 3:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 4:andnbsp;andnbsp; CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 5:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 7:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, developed Asia-Pacific
Figure 8:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2018
Figure 9:andnbsp;andnbsp; Metrics for the 6 countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2013
Figure 10:andnbsp;andnbsp; Penetration rate by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 11:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by service type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 12:andnbsp;andnbsp; Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 13:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 14:andnbsp;andnbsp; Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 and 2018
Figure 15:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 16:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 17:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 18:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
Figure 19:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
Figure 20:andnbsp;andnbsp; Service revenue by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013
Figure 21:andnbsp;andnbsp; Service revenue by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2018
Figure 22:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 and 2018
Figure 23:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2009-2018
Figure 24:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2013-2018
Figure 25:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2013-2018
Figure 26:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Australia
Figure 27:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Australia, 2009-2018
Figure 28:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, Australia, 2009-2018
Figure 29:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2009-2018
Figure 30:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Australia, 2009-2018
Figure 31:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2009-2018
Figure 32:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2013-2018
Figure 33:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2013-2018
Figure 34:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
Figure 35:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
Figure 36:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
Figure 37:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
Figure 38:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
Figure 39:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2009-2018
Figure 40:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2013-2018
Figure 41:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2013-2018
Figure 42:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Japan
Figure 43:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Japan, 2009-2018
Figure 44:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, Japan, 2009-2018
Figure 45:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2009-2018
Figure 46:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Japan, 2009-2018
Figure 47:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2009-2018
Figure 48:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2013-2018
Figure 49:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2013-2018
Figure 50:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Singapore
Figure 51:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Singapore, 2009-2018
Figure 52:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, Singapore, 2009-2018
Figure 53:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2009-2018
Figure 54:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Singapore, 2009-2018
Figure 55:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2009-2018
Figure 56:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2013-2018
Figure 57:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2013-2018
Figure 58:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, South Korea
Figure 59:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, South Korea, 2009-2018
Figure 60:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, South Korea, 2009-2018
Figure 61:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2009-2018
Figure 62:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, South Korea, 2009-2018
Figure 63:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2009-2018
Figure 64:andnbsp;andnbsp; Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2013-2018
Figure 65:andnbsp;andnbsp; Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2013-2018
Figure 66:andnbsp;andnbsp; Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
Figure 67:andnbsp;andnbsp; Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2009-2018
Figure 68:andnbsp;andnbsp; ARPU rates by type, Taiwan, 2009-2018
Figure 69:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2009-2018
Figure 70:andnbsp;andnbsp; Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Taiwan, 2009-2018


Geographical coverage


Forecast data is provided for the following individual countries, as well as for the region as a whole:


Australia
Hong Kong
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan


Data series in the Excel annex


The following data is provided for each individual country listed in under 'Geographical coverage' and for the region as a whole. Figures are provided in USD and local currency units at constant and current exchange rates.


Mobile Connections total (including M2M)
Mobile Connections total (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid share (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration - contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 2G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 3G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 4G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections handset
Mobile Connections handset penetration
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid
Mobile Connections handset - contract
Mobile Connections handset - prepaid share
Mobile Connections handset - 2G
Mobile Connections handset - 3G
Mobile Connections handset - 4G
Mobile Connections handset - smartphone
Mobile Connections handset - basic
Mobile Connections broadband
Mobile Connections broadband penetration
Mobile Connections broadband - 2G
Mobile Connections broadband - 3G
Mobile Connections broadband - 4G
Mobile Connections M2M
Mobile Connections M2M penetration
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Service revenue prepaid
Mobile Service revenue contract
Mobile Service revenue prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue data
Mobile Service revenue data as % of service revenue
Mobile Service revenue handset
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid
Mobile Service revenue handset - contract
Mobile Service revenue handset - prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue handset - voice
Mobile Service revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Service revenue handset - data
Mobile Service revenue broadband
Mobile Service revenue M2M
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Retail revenue handset
Mobile Retail revenue handset - voice
Mobile Retail revenue handset - SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Retail revenue handset - data
Mobile Retail revenue broadband
Mobile Retail revenue M2M
Mobile ARPU total telecoms
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms - contract
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M)
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) - contract
Mobile ARPU handset
Mobile ARPU handset - prepaid
Mobile ARPU handset - contract
Mobile ARPU handset - voice
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Fixed Connections voice
Fixed Connections voice - narrowband
Fixed Connections voice - VoBB
Fixed Connections broadband
Fixed Connections DSL
Fixed Connections FTTH/B
Fixed Connections cable modem
Fixed Connections BFWA
Fixed Connections other fixed broadband
Fixed Connections IPTV
Fixed Connections dial-up Internet
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue voice
Fixed Retail revenue dial-up Internet
Fixed Retail revenue broadband
Fixed Retail revenue DSL
Fixed Retail revenue FTTH/B
Fixed Retail revenue cable modem
Fixed Retail revenue BFWA
Fixed Retail revenue other fixed broadband retail revenue
Fixed Retail revenue IPTV
Fixed Retail revenue business network services
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Total market Connections voice
Total market Connections broadband
Total market Service revenue total telecoms
Total market Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue voice
Total market Retail revenue non-voice
Total market Voice traffic outgoing minutes

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