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Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014

  • October 2013
  • -
  • Simba Information
  • -
  • 196 pages

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 is a critical research tool that explores a much-discussed but little-understood side of the market: children’s e-books. In a pair of nationally representative surveys you just can’t get anywhere else, Simba answers the pressing questions pertaining to this segment: What percentage of adults buy children’s and YA books, and in what format are they buying them? How do e-book buyers and iPad owners view the intersection between children and reading, and what extent do they buy digital children’s books? And finally, how many are buying children’s and YA print and e-books to read for themselves?

In this report, Simba examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens, as well as an in-depth look at format trends. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

This exclusive statistics and analysis in this report include:

Proprietary data on children’s e-book adoption levels, as well as exclusive e-book user and iPad owner trend data.
Analysis of the bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
Exhaustive demographic review of adult buyers of children’s/YA books
Multi-year results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country, which rate different books and genres as well as profiling buyer and retail trends.
Category trends for 15 major juvenile categories with five or more years of data.
Projections on the children’s/YA market size through 2015
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 also includes profiles of bestseller performance and financial estimates for companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

Table Of Contents

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014
Methodology
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children's/YA Book Market and Buyer Demographics
Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Children's Book Buyer Demographics
Gender—Table 1.10 1
Race—Table 1.11
Age Bracket—Table 1.12
Education Level—Table 1.13
Household Income—Table 1.14
Employment Status—Table 1.15
Region—Table 1.16
Kind of Residence—Table 1.17
Marital Status—Table 1.18
Number of Children in Household—Table 1.19
Age of Children in Household—Table 1.20
Vertical Demographic Overview—Table 1.21
Table 1.1: How Common are the Following Children's/YA Book Buyers?
Table 1.2: When Parent(s) or Adults are Buying a Children's/YA Book, who is it usually?
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children's Books
Table 1.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender
Table 1.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
Table 1.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region
Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Kind of Residence
Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Children's Consumers by Marital Status
Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Household Children Population
Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
Table 1.21: Children's Book Buyers: Key Statistics and Demographics
Chapter 2: Trends in Children's/YA Book Publishing
Introduction
Children's/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: Revenue Trends
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
Trends in Children's/YA E-Book Adoption
Children's Educational Apps: Key Statistics
The Value of Series
Success Still Consolidated
Hardcover, Paperback Formats Still Holding On Despite E-Book Rise
TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
Retailer and ‘Intermediaries' Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Still Cooling Post-Twilight
Table 2.1: Domestic Net Sales of Consumer Books by Book Type, 2011-2012
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2013 vs. 2012
Table 2.3: Boys/Girls Enjoyment of Reading Books for Fun (2010-2012)
Table 2.4: Boys/Girls Frequency of Reading Books for Fun (2010-2012)
Table 2.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Group (2011-2013)
Table 2.6: Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases (February 2012-2013)
Table 2.7: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (June 2013)
Table 2.8: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (All Adults, E-Book Users and iPad Owners) Any Agree, 2012-2013
Table 2.9: Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases: iPad Owners and E-Book Users (August 2012-June 2013)
Table 2.10: Print: Why Did you Buy a Children's YA/Print Book? (August 2012-June 2013)
Table 2.11: Digital: Why Did You Buy a Children's/YA Digital Title? (August 2012)
Table 2.12: Children's Book Buyers Who Also Use E-Books (2011-2013)
Table 2.13: Percentage of U.S. Adults with Child(ren) in Household
Who Has Purchased/Downloaded Children's/YA Education Apps (April-June 2013)
Table 2.14: NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.15: NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
Table 2.16: NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011
Table 2.17: NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012
Table 2.18: NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2012-June 2013
Table 2.19: Average Bestselling Titles per Author (2008-2013)
Table 2.20: Format Trends: Hardcover, Paperback, and E-Book as Percentage of Children's/YA (2011-2012)
Table 2.21: Best Performing Categories, 2008-2012
Table 2.22: How Would you Rate the Following Formats of Children's Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.23: Children's Titles by Age Range on Weekly Bestseller Lists (2003-2013-YTD)
Table 2.24: When Looking at Children's and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business is Trending?
Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
Bestselling Books, Authors, and Imprints
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
New Titles
Bestselling Authors
Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title
Table 3.1: No. of New Children's/YA Titles Appearing on NYT and USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2013
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.4: Top 20 New York Times Series Imprints, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.8: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Bestsellers, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.9: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Authors, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.10: Top 20 NYT and USA Today Imprints, July 2012-June 2013
Table 3.11: Leading Children's Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2010-June 2012
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2012-June 2013
Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts
Introduction
Leading Children's Publishers
Candlewick
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
HarperCollins
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic
Simon and Schuster
Size of the Children's Publishing Market
Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue
Forecast for Balance of 2013 and Beyond
January—March Comparisons (2012-2013)
Consumer Spending on Children's/YA Books
Table 4.1: Scholastic Revenue, FY 2001-2013
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2011-2015P
Table 4.3: Leading Children's Publishers, 2011-2015P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Sales (Jan-March 2013)
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Returns
Table 4.6: Total Amount Spent by Consumers on Children's/YA Books (Print and/or Digital) Past 12 Months
Table 4.7: Total Amount Spent by Tablet Owners on Children's/YA Books (Print and/or Digital) Past 12 Months
Chapter 5: Category Trends
Introduction
The Top Categories
USA Today Bestseller Data
Children's/YA Individual Category Analysis
Action and Adventure
Animals
Family and Relationships
Fantasy
Graphic Novel
History
Horror
Horror and Ghost
Humor 118
People and Places
Religion
Schools and Education
Science Fiction
Social Issues
Social Science
Table 5.1: Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.2: Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.3: Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011
Table 5.4: Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012
Table 5.5: Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2012-June 2013
Table 5.6: Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.7: Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011
Table 5.8: Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012
Table 5.9: Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2012-June 2013
Table 5.10: Select Category Ratings, Seven-Year Overview
Table 5.11: Action and Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.12: Vital Statistics - Action and Adventure
Table 5.13: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.14: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.15: Family and Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.16: Vital Statistics - Family and Relationships
Table 5.17: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.18: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.19: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.20: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.21: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.22: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.23: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.24: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.25: Horror and Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.26: Vital Statistics - Horror and Ghost
Table 5.27: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.28: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.29: People and Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.30: Vital Statistics - People and Places
Table 5.31: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.32: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.33: Schools and Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.34: Vital Statistics - Schools and Education
Table 5.35: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.36: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.37: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.38: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.39: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.40: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales
Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Mass Merchandisers and Children's Book Retailing
Barnes and Noble
Books-A-Million
Operating Performance at the Big Two Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Amazon.com
Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million
Channel Breakdown for All Buyers vs. Children's Book Buyers
Attitudes and Opinions about Shopping among Children's Book Buyers
Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends (2008-2013)
Table 6.2: Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box (2002-2012)
Table 6.3: Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2013
Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2009-2013
Table 6.5: Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2007-2013
Table 6.6: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2007-2012
Table 6.7: Major U.S. Bookstore Chains: Number of Superstore
Outlets: 2007-2012
Table 6.8: Amazon's Media Sales vs. Electronic Sales As a Percentage of Total Sales, Q12007-2013
Table 6.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Table 6.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Table 6.11: Five-Year Trend: Children's Book Buyers Who Only Use Online Channel (2009-2013)
Table 6.12: Five-Year Trend: Children's Book Buyers Who Only Use Bookstores (2009-2013)
Table 6.13: Overview of U.S. Adults and Children's Book Buyers: Attitudes and Opinions on Shopping (Any Agree)
Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions
Conclusions
Other Recommendations
Table 7.1: Parent Factors that Impact Child's Reading Fluency
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2011-2015P
Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House Inc.
Scholastic Corp.
Simon and Schuster Inc.

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